Lots of smart people are debating about the economic pain being worse than the "cure" of preventing #coronavirus spread. I don't know the right answer, but I can help you frame the question.
For starters, forget comparing this to any past economic situation. It is a weird hybrid that has a timer on it (several months), with lots of human adjustments of unpredictable consequence.
The economy is a "psychology engine." If we can hold our psychology together in a productive way, and we can feed those in need while we do it, the economy is waiting and ready for a full comeback. Nothing broke. Just reassemble and press play.
Is a trillion dollars of immediate aid enough, or do we need two trillion? The smartest people in the world don't agree. Going big feeds the "psychology engine" best. Going smaller and adjusting as needed works too. Best to go big but hold back half until you see what happens.
The human ingenuity that is being concentrated on this problem is mind-boggling. It is the biggest variable and the most invisible. Ask Warren Buffett how smart it is to bet against the economy of the United States. Ever.
Count on the people with money to be patriots in this situation. When my governor tells me I can leave the house, I'll be raining money on the local economy, and not because I like to shop. Using delivery for now.
The biggest economic variable after the crisis passes will be bringing our supply chains home. The economic benefit of that (which is now guaranteed to happen) will be immense.
Repatriating our supply chain should be a cabinet level position, or similar.
Businesses that were profitable before the virus hit are a bank's best friend. Banks LOVE a proven business model that has a short-term cash need. Best kind of loan you can make.
Printing money and handing out cash is normally inflationary. But we have never had less inflationary pressure in general. Even energy costs less. I can't think of a better time to do it.
Expect lots of patriotic over-hiring when we can leave our homes, at least for companies that can afford it. If we get employment right, the psychology engine will roar.
Full disclosure, I put all of my available cash into the stock market during the downturn. When the market comes back, it will happen fast, whether a month from now, next year, or five years from now.
If you are a new follower, it might help your confidence in my opinion to know I have a degree in economics and an MBA. I'm not an expert by any means. But I can probably see the field better than those with no training. And I don't see anything permanently broken.
Economics is like no other field of study. It might be the only one in which you can "will it into existence" so long as everyone is on the same page and there are no material shortages. If we keep our minds right, the economy follows.
I'm making it my job to help you do just that. We'll come out of this stronger if we all agree we will. (Spoiler: We will.) Focus forward. Winning is certain. Timing is anyone's guess.
