Thread by @swimtheorist

Four countries have contained their #covid19 outbreaks: China, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea. The last three did it without closing schools, churches, bars, or any non-essential businesses. They did it without lock-downs and without banning all gatherings. How??

As noted by @tomaspueyo, the core of the most effective #covid19 containment strategies was Test Track Publish: (1) test everyone, multiple times; (2) track every infected person; and (3) publish all the data so everyone knows what's going one. Why does this work?

#covid19 is being spread in large part by people who don't know they're infected!! Every day they infect many other people at work, on their way to work, and while they shop. The only way to contain the virus is to find these asymptomatic spreaders and put them in isolation.

If we don't stop these asymptomatic super-spreaders, nearly everyone will become infected and millions will die. And if we can locate and isolate them, we can all go back to our normal lives. THEREFORE THIS IS THE MOST CRITICALLY IMPORTANT ACTION WE NEED TO TAKE.

1. Test Everyone, Multiple Times. Everyone can get tested for free, without preconditions, with or without symptoms, 24/7, either in person at a drive-thru clinic or by mail. Everyone who is tested gets a receipt, an "I was tested" sticker, and a free N95 mask.

2. Track Every Infected Person. Infected people must self-isolate until they test negative. We cover sick pay and medical. Healthcare workers help them manage their symptoms and escalate to hospitals if their symptoms degrade. Trace every known contact and test them.

3. Publish Results. Publish anonymized daily data on testing and infections down to zip+four, including number of people tested, number negative, number positive; location of all infected people; status of all infected people; and all outcomes (recover/death).

4. Educate. Create new social norms around improved hygiene. During crisis, everyone must wear N95 respirator in public when within 6 feet of others. People without respirators must stay at least 6 feet away from others in public.

HALF of the people who tested positive for #covid19 in Iceland had no symptoms. ONE THIRD of the people who tested positive in China had no symptoms. The only effective way to stop this virus is to test track and publish.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Here's @tomaspueyo 's analysis:
medium.com/@tomaspueyo/co…
Here's a summary of the recommended #covid19 management plan:
swimtheory.com/home/200-misce…
@tomaspueyo - let's use that to tune up your petition!

Update! Singapore now banning gatherings of more than 10 people outside of school or work, and closing all entertainment venues that have sustained close contact over a period of time. Schools and business remain open.
channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore…