Thread๐Ÿงต:
As I predicted two days ago, the Russian invasion of #Ukraine would directly affect the course of the negotiations in #Vienna on #Iran's nuclear program, which was declared frozen today.
1/6
To understand why, you can read the thread:๐Ÿ‘‡
Signing the agreement would have meant a stab in the back for #Russia by opening the way for Iranian oil and gas to be pumped into the global market, which would turn the most dangerous Russian weapon against the West less severe.
2/6
#Iran #USA #EU #UK #NATO
A rejection of the agreement would create to the West anger and disappointment with all the economic and security concessions made by #France, #Germany and the #US, which in one way or another caused tension in western relations with #SaudiArabia and the #UAE.
3/6
The Iranian decision to freeze these negotiations is a dirty game to gain more time. The ball is now in the court of Europe and the Biden administration who should realize after all this, that this Iranian regime will always be an enemy to the West.
4/6
What is the West's next step? Will the allies move towards a decisive step by declaring the failure of these negotiations, going towards more effective sanctions on #Iran and opening the way for #Israel to move freely?
5/6
#IDF #IAF #Bennet #Biden #USA #IRGC
Or will the West move towards another weak decision by waiting for #Tehran to return to negotiations and make more concessions, whether economic or geopolitical in the Middle East, leading to lose more allies there?
6/6
#USA #KSA #UAE #Iran #Syria #Iraq #Israel #Russia

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More from @evacool_

Mar 11
Thread : ๐Ÿงต
Today, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu announced that there are more than 16,000 volunteers ready to support and fight in #Lugansk and #Donetsk if #Russia requests it.
1/11
#Ukraine #USA #NATO #EU #UK #Biden Image
This announcement was not surprising to me or to those familiar with the scene in #Syria in particular and the Middle East in general. In my opinion, #Moscow is able to mobilize more than double that number and has already started accepting recruitment requests.
2/11 ImageImage
There are two types of militias in the Middle East, one part carrying a religious ideology (like #Hezbollah), and another part in the form of security companies, among which the fighters volunteered for economic reasons (25th Brigade in #Syria).
3/11 ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
Mar 10
A thread explaining the military, humanitarian, and diplomatic situation of #Mariupฮฟl after around 10 days of siege of the city.
1/11
In the humanitarian scene, electricity has been cut off from the city since the beginning of the siege as a result of the Russian armyโ€™s targeting of power supply stations, causing the heating stopping in a cold winter weather with temperatures of -10 in the evening.
2/11
We are talking about more than 300,000 people who did not leave the city with the interruption of the food supply. This pushed the population towards consuming canned food, which is also starting to run out, with very limited sources of drinking water.
3/11
Read 11 tweets
Mar 9
Thread :๐Ÿงต
Yesterday, the Polish government announced its agreement to relinquish a number of MiG-29s "immediately and free of charge" to the United States and transfer them in to the Ramstein base in #Germany.
1/11
#Ukraine #Russia #USA #NATO #Poland #EU #UK Image
This step was met with fear and anxiety by the #Pentagon in #Washington under the pretext that it does not want the #US or any of the #NATO countries to have a direct role in the ongoing war in #Ukraine.
2/11 Image
At the outset, it must be emphasized that the launch of any warplane from any of the #NATO bases in the vicinity of Ukraine and its entry into the Ukrainian airspace will be considered by Moscow as a direct participation in the war, and thus a broader clash and a global war.
3/11 Image
Read 11 tweets
Oct 14, 2021
A number of TV channels and websites close to #Iran published a statement attributed to the so-called "Syria's Allies Operations Room" confirming that the #IDF targeted two of their sites in the vicinity of the Syrian city of #Palmyra.1/6
#Syria #Israel #IRGC #USA #Russia
The statement indicated that the attack was carried out from over the Al-Tanf area and confirmed the deaths and injuries among the fighters of these militias. It also explicitly referred to an American role in this attack, and vowed to respond "very strong".2/6
This is not the first time that the so-called "Syria's Allies Operations Room" makes a statement. It has issued a number of previous statements, including the attacks of the #IDF on #Syria, and the battles of the city of #Aleppo against the Syrian rebels.3/6
Read 6 tweets
Oct 11, 2021
Based on the complications and the Turkish officials high tone statements, the main question will be what are #Turkey's options in responding to what happened in southern Mari'? 1/6
#Russia #USA #Syria #Biden #Erdogan #Putin #Iran Image
The first option, #Turkey may move towards exploiting what happened to carry out a media attack on the #YPG militia preparing for a military operation in another area less sensitive to #Russia (Ein al-Arab - Kobane city for example).2/6 Image
This operation more likely will be coordinated with #Moscow in order to push the Kurdish militias in eastern #Syria to get closer to the #Assad regime and #Russia, as they are able to protect them from #Turkey.3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 11, 2021
#Turkey
A Turkish convoy near the city of Mari', north of #Syria, was attacked by two anti-armour missiles from the Tal Rifat area, which led to the destruction of two cars, the death of two Turkish policemen, and injuring a number of others.1/7
#Russia #USA #YPG #SDF #Erdogan ImageImage
The Turkish Interior Ministry confirmed that the Kurdish #YPG militia was behind this attack, as it controls the Tal Rifat area, while a number of Turkish officials confirmed that #Turkey will not remain silent this time.2/7
reuters.com/world/middle-eโ€ฆ
At the outset, some important points should be highlighted to understand what happened and can take place in light of this tension as the information that confirms #Ankara's intention to start a new military operation in #Syria.3/7
#USA #Russia #Turkey ImageImage
Read 7 tweets

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