Thread :๐งต
Yesterday, the Polish government announced its agreement to relinquish a number of MiG-29s "immediately and free of charge" to the United States and transfer them in to the Ramstein base in #Germany.
1/11 #Ukraine#Russia#USA#NATO#Poland#EU#UK
This step was met with fear and anxiety by the #Pentagon in #Washington under the pretext that it does not want the #US or any of the #NATO countries to have a direct role in the ongoing war in #Ukraine.
2/11
At the outset, it must be emphasized that the launch of any warplane from any of the #NATO bases in the vicinity of Ukraine and its entry into the Ukrainian airspace will be considered by Moscow as a direct participation in the war, and thus a broader clash and a global war.
3/11
The Russian radars will not wait to see if the pilots of these planes are Ukrainians, Poles or Americans. It sees any non-Russian air target as an enemy. Moreover, Russian systems' monitoring ranged allows them to determine where these planes are launched from.
4/11
So, is this step not applicable? In my opinion, there is another way that the Ukrainian army can be supplied with these planes without this leading to a world war or a Russian collision with #NATO.
5/11 @StateDept@SecBlinken@WhiteHouse@PentagonPresSec
Close to the borders of countries allied to #Ukraine, there are 10 civil and military airports where these planes can be transported to, and when I say transport, I mean that they be transported by land in pieces and reassembled in Ukrainian airports.
6/11
These airports are as follows: Rivne, Lutsk, Lviv, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kamianets-Podilskyi, Chernivtsi, Uzhhorod, and Odessa.
7/11
Due to the long borders between #Ukraine with #Poland, #Slovakia, #Hungary, #Romania, and #Moldova, and with many land corridors, #Russia's capabilities cannot control all of them. Therefore, it is possible to enter them to Ukrainian territory.
8/11
Knowing that since the first day of this invasion, convoys of military support trucks from the West for the Ukrainian army have not stopped, and due to the complexity of the military scene, Moscow has not been able to continue this support and target until now.
9/11
As time goes on in this war, the West began to split into three parts. One part wants to break #Russia militarily, another part wants the war to end as quickly as possible to reduce the economic costs, and another part is just watching.
10/11
The West should realize that this Russian administration is obsessed with extending its influence, so if its waves do not break on the Ukrainian lands today, then it will not stop at the east bank of the Dnieper River.
11/11 @ZelenskyyUa@DmytroKuleba
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Thread : ๐งต
Today, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu announced that there are more than 16,000 volunteers ready to support and fight in #Lugansk and #Donetsk if #Russia requests it.
1/11 #Ukraine#USA#NATO#EU#UK#Biden
This announcement was not surprising to me or to those familiar with the scene in #Syria in particular and the Middle East in general. In my opinion, #Moscow is able to mobilize more than double that number and has already started accepting recruitment requests.
2/11
There are two types of militias in the Middle East, one part carrying a religious ideology (like #Hezbollah), and another part in the form of security companies, among which the fighters volunteered for economic reasons (25th Brigade in #Syria).
3/11
Thread๐งต:
As I predicted two days ago, the Russian invasion of #Ukraine would directly affect the course of the negotiations in #Vienna on #Iran's nuclear program, which was declared frozen today. 1/6 To understand why, you can read the thread:๐
Signing the agreement would have meant a stab in the back for #Russia by opening the way for Iranian oil and gas to be pumped into the global market, which would turn the most dangerous Russian weapon against the West less severe. 2/6 #Iran#USA#EU#UK#NATO
A rejection of the agreement would create to the West anger and disappointment with all the economic and security concessions made by #France, #Germany and the #US, which in one way or another caused tension in western relations with #SaudiArabia and the #UAE. 3/6
A thread explaining the military, humanitarian, and diplomatic situation of #Mariupฮฟl after around 10 days of siege of the city.
1/11
In the humanitarian scene, electricity has been cut off from the city since the beginning of the siege as a result of the Russian armyโs targeting of power supply stations, causing the heating stopping in a cold winter weather with temperatures of -10 in the evening.
2/11
We are talking about more than 300,000 people who did not leave the city with the interruption of the food supply. This pushed the population towards consuming canned food, which is also starting to run out, with very limited sources of drinking water.
3/11
A number of TV channels and websites close to #Iran published a statement attributed to the so-called "Syria's Allies Operations Room" confirming that the #IDF targeted two of their sites in the vicinity of the Syrian city of #Palmyra.1/6 #Syria#Israel#IRGC#USA#Russia
The statement indicated that the attack was carried out from over the Al-Tanf area and confirmed the deaths and injuries among the fighters of these militias. It also explicitly referred to an American role in this attack, and vowed to respond "very strong".2/6
This is not the first time that the so-called "Syria's Allies Operations Room" makes a statement. It has issued a number of previous statements, including the attacks of the #IDF on #Syria, and the battles of the city of #Aleppo against the Syrian rebels.3/6
Based on the complications and the Turkish officials high tone statements, the main question will be what are #Turkey's options in responding to what happened in southern Mari'? 1/6 #Russia#USA#Syria#Biden#Erdogan#Putin#Iran
The first option, #Turkey may move towards exploiting what happened to carry out a media attack on the #YPG militia preparing for a military operation in another area less sensitive to #Russia (Ein al-Arab - Kobane city for example).2/6
This operation more likely will be coordinated with #Moscow in order to push the Kurdish militias in eastern #Syria to get closer to the #Assad regime and #Russia, as they are able to protect them from #Turkey.3/6
#Turkey
A Turkish convoy near the city of Mari', north of #Syria, was attacked by two anti-armour missiles from the Tal Rifat area, which led to the destruction of two cars, the death of two Turkish policemen, and injuring a number of others.1/7 #Russia#USA#YPG#SDF#Erdogan
The Turkish Interior Ministry confirmed that the Kurdish #YPG militia was behind this attack, as it controls the Tal Rifat area, while a number of Turkish officials confirmed that #Turkey will not remain silent this time.2/7 reuters.com/world/middle-eโฆ
At the outset, some important points should be highlighted to understand what happened and can take place in light of this tension as the information that confirms #Ankara's intention to start a new military operation in #Syria.3/7 #USA#Russia#Turkey