Thread by @Cinzia_Bianco

BREAKING: #UAE President #KhalifabinZayed just died. Crown Prince of #AbuDhabi since 1969, and Abu Dhabi Ruler & President since his father Sheikh Zayed died in 2004. The #BurjKhalifa was initially named to honor him.

A few words on him + what happens now in a thread. 1/

After #KhalifabinZayed suffered a stroke in 2014, his younger brother Mohammad bin Zayed (#MbZ) became de facto leader of the #UAE. Now the Federal Supreme Council (including the rulers of the 7 Emirates) will ratify #MbZ as official President of the #UAE. Basically guaranteed 2/

The more interesting thing is who will be appointed #UAE Crown Prince. Options include #MbZ’s brother & #security czar #TahnoonBinZayed, another brother, or #MbZ’s son #KhalidBinZayed.

While #SaudiArabia moved to primogeniturial succession, the #UAE might do the opposite. 3/

#MbZ long empowered his siblings (the #BaniFatima). They are:
- HH Hamdan (born 1963), not very close to #MBZ
- HH Hazza, National Security Advisor (NSA)
- HH Tahnoun, (NSA)
- HH Mansour, married to a daughter of #MbR
- HH Abdullah, #ForeignMinister
- HH Shamma & Alyazia (w) 4/

#KhalidBinZayed should read: Khalid bin #MbZ. Born 1982, he isthe right age for Crown Prince. He has prominent roles: Member of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council, Chairman of Abu Dhabi Executive Office. But not many high-profile accomplishments. Not sure he will be Crown Prince. 4/

@andreas_krieg agrees Khalid bin Mohammad bin Zayed might not be the new #UAE Crown Prince. But I disagree it will be #TahnoonBinZayed. I think it might be another brother…perhaps Sheikh Mansour, son-in-law of #MbR, #UAE PM & #Dubai leader. Would link the 2 power centres. 5/

https://twitter.com/andreas_krieg/status/1525079756407984129

Not much will change in #UAE foreign & domestic policies, except #MbZ will have even less reason to seek consensus w/#Dubai & other Emirates. Certainly we will see some reshuffles, consolidating #AlNahyan power over executive/banks/sports/energy specifically. 5/

#KhalifaBinZayed’s funeral attendance will be very political In the region, #SaudiArabia, #Egypt & other #GCC (#Qatar too, imo), #Erdogan perhaps. Someone from #Iran might attend, given historical contacts. I doubt #Israel-i reps will show but technically could - fascinating. 6/

Which international guests at #KbZ funeral? IMO, #UK will send a royal, as will other #Europe-ans who have them. If #Russia sends someone high-profile, it will be messy. #China may skip due to #Covid. #France’s #Macron & #US #Biden would normally go, but air is tense (?) #UAE 7/

As #UAE President, #MbZ will outrank (technically) #SaudiArabia’s #MbS, and for the 1st time officially #MbR of #Dubai.

While #MbZ did much of this already, some in other Emirates fear he will turn the UAE into a unitary state not a federation. That’s very sensitive stuff…8/

So, to sum up: the death of #KhalifaBinZayedAlNahyan, President of the #UAE, should not change the foreign policy line, but produce an even more confident #MbZ. Unless (very unlikely) four votes in the Federal Supreme Council surprise us all in the next month. 9/9

Extra 1/ #Bashar al-#Assad already sent a telegram of condolences to the #IAE for the passing of #KhalifaBinZayedAlNahyan. Light speed!

https://twitter.com/presidency_sy/status/1525089759231725568

Extra 2/ #France’s President Emmanuel #Macron wrote a special tweet in Arabic to send his condolences for the death of #UAE President #KhalifaBinZayedAlNahyan

https://twitter.com/emmanuelmacron/status/1525134089677852672

Very interesting point from @bmalsaif. Indeed #MbS calling #TahnoonBinZayed (#TbZ) is worth highlighting. We might know more already tomorrow. #UAE

https://twitter.com/bmalsaif/status/1525187761212383234

As written yesterday in this thread, the #UAE Federal Supreme Council moved at light speed and elected #MbZ as the #UAE’s next President.

#MohamedBinZayed

https://twitter.com/WAMNEWS_ENG/status/1525400762163019777