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Jan 13 13 tweets 11 min read
A confluence of unprecedented events in 2022 weakened asset prices across all markets. (1/n)

#assetallocation #investing #personalfinance #throwback #thread
The Fed’s pivot to a less aggressive monetary policy is likely to set the tone for the markets in 2023. (2/n)

#FED #FederalReserve #monetarypolicy
It is expected that global inflation will continue to be higher in this decade, in combination with a significant slowdown of the U.S. economy. (3/n)

#inflation #interestrates #globalmarket
Macro headwinds have been building, as high prices and aggressive central bank tightening have started to curb consumption, which may cause a sub-trend growth outlook in 2023. (4/n)

#centralbanks #economy
While the U.S. dollar has started to weaken, it is still at very strong historical levels. If it continues to weaken in 2023, that would certainly be good for EM debt priced in non-dollar local currencies. For eg: India. (5/n)

#USDollars #currency
During the 2010s EM equities suffered their worst performance as an asset class going as far back as the 1930s. Fast forward 10 years and most emerging countries like India, Brazil, & Indonesia started the 2020s in much better shape economically than in the previous decade. (6/n)
OPEC’s recent decision to cut production quotas underscores the role that high prices play to incentivize investment. A fall in prices now could disincentivize investment and lead to higher prices when demand recovers. (7/n)

#Petrol #exports
The reopening of China poses an opportunity for capturing global growth since it makes up nearly 1/5th of the global GDP and the prospect of a sharp upswing at a time of slow global growth is enticing. (8/n)

#globalmarkets #GDP #economy
India is projected to grow at a healthy 6.9% in 2022-2023 - at a time when global GDP is expected to slow down to 2.7% from 3.2%. It is estimated that CAD will be at 3.6% of GDP and fiscal deficit budgeted at 6.4% of GDP in 2022-23. (9/n)

#india #economy #GDP
With Indian markets outperforming global peers and valuations remaining fair, expect a year full of uncertainty. (10/n)

#stockmarketindia #sensex #bse
Uncertainty only means opportunities opening across the board. The debt market is set to offer better returns than in the past, with short-term duration funds offering the best risk-reward ratio. (11/n)

#debtmarket #investing #debtfunds
The best time to enter the debt market is when interest rates stabilise as central banks take a pause. (12/n)

#debt #fixedincome #interestrates
The mantra for 2023 is to continue practising prudent asset allocation and being systematic with equity and debt investing. (13/n)

#assetallocation #equity #debt #gold

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More from @ithoughtadviser

Oct 13, 2022
A look at India Vs the Rest of the world!

A Thread!

#india #economy #globaleconomy #inflation

India is emerging as one of the relatively better-off economies in the post-COVID world.


Looking closely, we find that India’s inflation is well controlled, ATH FX reserves have acted well as a shock absorber against volatility, and our GDP growth expectations is one the highest in the world!

#inflation #volatility #GDP

Read 8 tweets
Aug 26, 2022
The global economy has changed dramatically this year, and financial markets have turned volatile. The question on everyone’s mind now is…


#globaleconomy #financialmarkets #nifty
Will recession hit India? How will it be different from past recessions that our country has faced?

Let’s look at some data points.


#recession #india #economy
Based on the RBI’s assessment, the Real GDP projection is retained at 7.2% for FY23. This comes on the back of strong investment activity, improving bank credit and rising capacity expansion.


#rbi #gdp #centralbanks
Read 8 tweets
May 16, 2022
The banking sector has been an underperformer since COVID. What makes it so interesting now? (1/8)

#bankingsector #COVID19 #investing
The banking sector is the backbone of our economy. The health of our banks has always played a major role in our economic growth journey. (2/8)

#india #economy #banks
With the introduction of the Asset quality review in FY15-16, banks' asset quality has been under pressure. This was further aggravated by events such as demonetisation, GST, and the IL&FS crisis. As a result, the GNPA ratio for Banks rose to 11.2% in FY18 vs 4.3% in FY15. (3/8)
Read 8 tweets
Feb 7, 2022
Infrastructure as a Theme

A Thread!

#stockmarket #investing #infrastructure #infrastocks

To understand the infrastructure cycle, we go back in time and look at our previous super Capex cycle, which started from 2003 to 2012

#capex #Markets

We saw that the commodity prices were increasing, reforms such as the Electricity Act came into play and government spending grew at a rapid pace of 23% CAGR. This led to overall growth in the capital cycle

#commodity #economy

Read 19 tweets
Dec 11, 2021
Banking Sector!

A Thread.

#Banks #PublicBanks #PrivateBanks

Performance of Bank credit in last decade. Affected due to slowdown in industrial credit towards the second half of the decade.
#Bank #Credit #GDP

(2/7) Image
A triple blow!

1. A commercial credit downcycle due to capital downcycle.

(3/7) Image
Read 7 tweets
Dec 1, 2021
The IPO Hype!

A Thread.

#IPO #StockMarket #investing #strategy

IPOs have been all the rage this year. We’ve seen 98 IPOs from January 2021 till date. Are they worth this hype? Let’s take a closer look.

#IPO #IPOUpdate

Also known as ‘Going Public’. An IPO is when a company invites the public to invest in its shares. This is usually followed by a lot of fanfare.

#stocks #ipoallotment #markets

Read 11 tweets

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