Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #usdinr

Most recents (18)

The Rupee is in a free fall against the US Dollar.

However, the RBI is intervening to cushion INR's fall.

Ever wonder how the RBI does it?

Let's learn it here:

#USDINR #USD #forex #India #Rupee
First, let's understand why RBI intervenes to defend the rupee in the first place.

A weak currency worsens our fiscal deficit, fuels inflation and slows down international trade.

Clearly, RBI has a mandate to improve the situation on behalf of the GoI and the citizens of India.
Forex market is highly volatile and a breeding ground for speculators. This is why the FX market is the most liquid in the world with around $7.5 trillion (with a T!) in daily turnover.

So, RBI has to control speculation in the USDINR segment to ensure stability of the Rupee.
Read 11 tweets
Sachichanand Shukla, Mahindra group's chief economist doesn't rule out the possibility of #USDINR touching 85 due to 3 reasons :-

#Recession #StockMarketCrash
#StockMarket #StockMarketIndia #Stocks

(1/4) Image
First, Dollar will be prone to sudden spikes due to inflation or FED.

Second, Oil prices may rise after US November midterm polls.

Read 4 tweets
RBI is playing with FIRE abt intervention in the FWD USDINR market…. Your sins with come back to haunt you … unlike Equities which can be manipulated for years, you can’t do that same with FX and RATES
@RBI EXTENT Of Forward Intervention is #MindBoggling in one #CHART. You can see INR 2yr & 3yr Implied Forward Premium is 7.8% & 7.59% Respectively
& has Actually Increased while the near term 12 Month INR forward is just 2.5%. This kind of DIVERGENCE is SCARY.#RETWEET #MUSTREAD Image
This is called Timing !!

My tweet was at 1.26pm IST. See the INTRADAY on the INR today … the breakdown happens at 1.57pm IST

I guess I was just lucky I guess since there was NO MOVEMENT in the DXY or regional currencies like the JPY (see Intraday Charts of JPY, INR, DXY) ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
Look, Honestly what I think about the current market situation #NIFTY & # SENSEX >> thread [1/n] 👇
mostly in history, I saw every time #USDINR price come upside and the market also show correction on big timeframes same time, #usdinr continuously going upside after July but our index was also going upside in June, July, and Aug after 15,183 Low ImageImage
#NIFTY sustained upside to this trendline for more than two to three weeks, which was a sign of continuing bull run, and targets of 19k and 20k, in fact, all TV anchors were giving long-term and shorterm trades, all big channels, and Twitter handles were started posting 20k chart Image
Read 11 tweets
Top countries where FII have invested📊

🇺🇸 USA 39%
🇲🇺 Mauritius 11%
🇱🇺 Luxembourg 7%
🇸🇬 Singapore 7%
🇬🇧 UK 5%
🇮🇪 Ireland 5%
🇨🇦 Canada 3%
🇯🇵 Japan 3%
🇳🇴 Norway 2%
🇳🇱 Netherlands 2%

The data is taken from CDSL for April 2022 based on Equity Assets under custody of FPI (FPIs include FIIs, Sub Accounts & QFIs)

Indian market is volatile because of FIIs selling.

But Why do FIIs investments impact the stock market?🤔

• They are the source of capital in markets
• They are Major Investors
• They Aid in economic development

#StockMarket #investors
Read 6 tweets
#Nifty #BankNifty are in final phase of the prolonged last 6 months, where they've been busy separating very few men out of so many boys in #Markets 1/n
#FII selling of record numbers didnt break the market much beyond say 10% decline on the #Indices indicating longer term strength still 2/n
Yet in the shorter term #GreatResults from every blue chip met with an immediate trading top. Hmm... good news is not impacting... 3/n
Read 5 tweets
IPO season is going on and a lot of people asked to explain how IPO related flows impact local currency and what's the difference between bringing dollar on outright basis vs on hedged basis. Here's an attempt by us at @kotaksecurities.
There are two parts to any IPO - anchor book, which opens one day prior to IPO (Nov 3) and second is, book building portion (Nov 8-10), when IPO goes live. These dates are for Paytm IPO.
In case of Paytm IPO, it is India's largest IPO at 18.9K crs and so is the anchor book, which is approx 8.5k crs. Since 1/3rd of anchor book to be allocated to MFs, net anchor book for FPIs is 5.7k crs. All these numbers are calculated at higher price of the range - 2150.
Read 14 tweets
Want to understand what makes #USDINR interesting from an individual #option trader perspective.

Let's try to understand this in this thread. USDINR has both weekly and monthly options contract which are fairly liquid. Today was weekly expiry.
Weekly options expire every Friday at 12:30 pm and monthly options at 2 days prior to last working day of the month. Margin applicable in USDINR is normally between 2.5% to 3% depending upon volatility.
Margin for one lot of USDINR #straddle (74.50 July 30 expiry - weekly contract) is roughly Rs. 2600/2700 and premium received is around 35p, which on one lot comes to Rs. 350 ($1000*0.35).
Read 8 tweets

1. Multifold Inflows ~= Outflows (of Tr Def & CA def).
2. RBI appetite for reserves reducing
3. Weak DXY
4. Hand of God levels (73-74)

1. Crude 73+
2. Inflation > 6% yet MPC stance accommodative
3. GDP growth 🤞 (8-9% over 2020 which is ~ to 2019)
4. Tr def, CA def.
5. Fiscal deficit
6. Rising commodity prices headwind for govt spending

1. Reserves of over $150 Bn added within 24m
2. Avg cost 72-73
3. Appreciation contained, however one off one time Depn is tolerated
4. inflation counter by keeping ₹ stable?
5. Are we forming base at 73 for the next band at 75-78 from current band of 73-75 levels if,
Crude > 73
DXY > 92 (taper)
Inflation > 6 (with accom)
Growth < 9%
Fisc > 8%

6. Conversely, 73 is difficult to hold if,

FED shrugs taper
Inflation is transitory
Fisc ~ 7-8
Read 5 tweets
1 new chart everyday, it could be from any space ~ equities / commodities / crypto / forex / bonds , etc

Will try to do it daily 🙏💪

Here's the first one 👇

SBI vs BankNifty

Ratio chart has given monthly breakout implying SBI could outperform BN in coming months.

#PB365 Image
(2) #DLF monthly chart

#PB365 Image
(3) #VodafoneIdea weekly chart

#PB365 Image
Read 160 tweets
#INR Macro check

▪️ #USDINR last 74.35 => ~1.4% off 75.35 highs => RBI's persistent #USD selling above 75.00 => with soft DXY, s/t consolidation in 74.00-75.35?

▪️ Risk Reversals, good gauge of nervousness, off highs (+1.6=>+0.9 vol) => less demand for USD Calls

▪️ Various economists revised India's GDP forecast lower
▪️ Good summary by @latha_venkatesh below
▪️ RBI GDP Projection +10.5% yoy FY 21/22 (Apr MPC)
▪️ Chart below: graphical overview of GDP trajectory - not that bad but whether worse yet to come?

▪️ When GDP collapses =>Trade Deficit tends to improve=>lower imports on poor aggregate demand
▪️ Q2 Apr-Jun'20=>massive reduction in trade deficit as GDP collapsed
▪️ Assuming only mild GDP hit in this COVID wave, associated trade deficit improvement should also be smaller

Read 11 tweets
#USDINR #Optionselling
Few lessons from last week Fiasco.

1. IV will go from low levels to higher levels increasing premiums suddenly
2. Market is cyclic in nature; What goes up will come down: What goes down will come up

3. Hold on your losses until expiry; if it continues roll-in-time
4. Adjust your position until the short strangle becomes a short straddle & then all you have to do is to wait for the market to do its job.
5. last & Important - DO NOT P A N I C; Emotional control matters

These lessons doesn't seem to be a new one for me r U
But the thing is, these lessons went in air, when there was a huge spike in MTM loss & emotions took control of my mind
Tho such ocurence has redcd signfcantly from past, dis incident showd me wher I need to improve myself.
Read 12 tweets
Thread on USDINR Trading:
Part of my capital i trade in USDINR - non-directional.
Past few months it traded in very narrow band - which is paradise for non-direction trading.
check chart.. last 3 months in just 2 Rs. Range
Today will share my December 2020 trade in USDINR

(1/4) Image
Entry Date: 8th December [normally i take position 40 - 45DTE]
Trade: iron condor
Strikes: sold 74.5 Ce and 73.5 PE [Jan 21 expiry]
Hedge: bought 75.5Ce and 72.5PE [Jan 21 expiry]

qty: for illustration shown 100 lots..
margin needed : 1,81,000

(2/4) Image
This is how pay off graph looks:

Risk reward: little under 1:1 [good for iron condors]

Adjustments: we are covered for 1 Rs on both sides. but in case of drastic move adjustments will be needed.

how to adjust: refer my video on youtube

(3/4) ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
Popular advice, don't watch TV

My take,

Obviously if u are algo or systems guy, u should not watch TV or even your fluctuating MTM on screen

For everyone else, TV is the biggest free tool u can use for your trading.

Obviously trading calls/advice is useless but that's just
1% of TV.

what about rest of it?

How many of us know about LTRO or OMO?

Watch TV everyday esp events like RBI policy and within few months all terms will start making sense to u.

Oh u don't need these terms for ur banknifty straddle. Is it?

Sooner u realize that every thing
Is interconnected, better off u will be as a discretionary trader.

Entire giant financial machine is interconnected with butterfly effect

In every dealing room /treasury /fund house there are many TVs visible to all dealers.

Many of the CFOs in corporate world have TV
Read 10 tweets
Did some analysis of #Nifty Historical Daily %Change from 1996 till date to get an idea how our market has behaved over the last 25 years or so.
Data source:
1. Daily changes have been the best on 'Wednesdays' and worst on 'Monday's

2. If we remove the 95th percentile outliers from the data... 'Monday' surprisingly turns to be the 2nd best while 'Wednesday' still remains the best.

3. Most of the bad outliers occurred on 'Monday'... I guess it it is due to the weekend effect (bad news)....

4. Daily individual contributions have been best in Qtr-2 & Qtr-4 while not so great in Qtr-1...

5. After removing outliers, Qtr-2 still best historically for positive daily % changes..
Read 7 tweets
#Fed #FederalReserve #FedData #Fedgov #Dollar #USD #USDINR

While many people talk about cheap money supply and liquidity , the reality is these are both very different concepts
While the term money simply refers to the supply of money, the term liquidity relates to the interplay between the supply and the demand for money
People demand money primarily in order to facilitate trade. Money offers the holder a greater purchasing power than any other good
Money enables an individual to secure a greater variety of goods than any other good could do i.e. it has a much greater purchasing power
Therefore, when people seek more money they do not want more money in their pockets but rather more purchasing power
Read 10 tweets
Lesson from recent past.

BALAKOT Airstrike did not trouble market much, I am confident that Indo-China border tussle may not too.

Note: 20 day Average True Range for #NIFTY is 260pts (CMP 9914)

Hence, will maintain 9600 as trigger level to change stance. #NIFTY
Update on #Nifty chart

4th Higher High formation
No weakness in volume to assist divergence
20Day ATR now 250pts (ATR falling means low volatile zone in an Uptrend which is bread butter for Trend Followers)

My view: Bullish as there is no sign of weakness yet.

TREND is UP Image
Update on #Nifty and #Banknifty chart.

I cannot see any sign of weakness externally or internally anywhere.
Prices are rising hence TREND is up.

It is as simple right now.

Current view: Bullish

(Nifty is UP +557pts since Indo-China tussle) Image
Read 52 tweets
The mother of all QEs is here - @federalreserve has announced:
a. Interest rate cut by 100bps to 0% - 0.25%
b. Emergency lending rate cut by 125 basis points to 0.25%,
c. Increased the emergency lending term of loans to 90 days.

#USD #FEDrate

d. Buying of $500 BN of Treasurys and $200 BN of agency-backed mortgage securities.
e. Pushed major banks to use the equity + liquid buffers ($1.3 TN + $2.9 TN) for lending and manage credit expansion.
Instantly, eight largest U.S. banks (Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, State Street, and Wells Fargo) have suspended share buybacks program to support the Fed's idea of credit expansion.

#bankofamerica #CITIBANK
Read 6 tweets

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