Thread by @nicholadrummond

What does the NATO summit actually mean?

Ignoring Trump’s personality for moment, his actions this week reflect a clear US foreign policy agenda. The bottom line is he wants NATO members to spend more on Defence, not because the USA fears Russia, but rather China.

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Trump needs Europe to be strong, not in case we need him, but in case he needs us. Germany is essential, not because it is a rich country, but because it is a great nation with sound leadership, and a partner all of NATO can trust and depend on.

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Russia is a concern, but not the insurmountable problem some would believe it to be. Europe underestimated Russia’s reaction to inviting Ukraine to be part of the EU. We antagonised Russia, instead of strengthening an emerging relationship with her.

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The truth is Russia is a natural ally. If you look at the strong relationships that existed before 1917, there is no reason why we can’t go back to this. Trade with Russia can help us and it can help Russia. We can benefit from each other and should work towards this.

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I believe positive economic engagement with Putin can encourage him to withdraw from Ukraine. We need to remember that he wants to create a lasting positive legacy, not to finish his career dangling at the end of a rope. If we lay out such a path he will follow it.

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To encourage this different approach, Europe needs to be strong. Convincing Putin that any military option would end in calamity is the first step towards a new relationship with Russia. It’s a stick and carrot approach. And Putin respects strength not weakness.

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But the real reason NATO needs to be strong is that China is starting to flex its muscles in a scary way. It is spending massive amounts of cash on military capability, far beyond any territorial defence needs. We need to recognise the threat that China now poses.

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The peace we have enjoyed since 1945 was achieved not by one power being significantly more powerful than others, but through parity. We forget that at our peril, as the memories of two costly world wars fade from our consciousness.

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All this means Germany, France, Italy and the UK need to spend an extra £20-£30 billion on defence annually. This may mean higher taxes or increased borrowing, but it is an insurance policy worth paying for.

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@GavinWilliamson recognises the need for an increased UK Defence budget. Trump has now made it a political issue. I would be very surprised if we didn’t now spend extra. It’s the right thing to do.

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