1. In my first piece in the @nypost today, I explain how the current crisis between Israel & Russia, in which Russia is unfairly blaming Israel for the Syrian army's shooting down of a Russian plane last week, cries out for US diplomacy to help manage it.
nypost.com/2018/09/25/how…
nypost.com/2018/09/25/how…
2. For the first time in decades, Israel finds itself on the receiving end of Russian threats. But there is little sign of a serious US effort to help lower the tensions. When Netanyahu meets with Trump today, he should seek a more focused US response.
3. Russia's always had the ability to limit Israeli freedom of action in Syria, but has chosen not to. Now, with possible domestic blowback for the loss of life, egged on by Iran & Syria, & as a signal to others in the region that there is a price for Russian blood, they may try.
4. A large fleet of Russian warships and planes currently in the eastern Mediterranean could be used to constrict the airspace Israeli planes operate in. Russia could deny use of the deconfliction channel, although it has not yet done so.
5. In extremis, it could confront Israeli planes directly. Moscow this week announced it will provide Syria its advanced S-300 air-defense systems. Israel will not suspend its campaign. But Russian steps could endanger Israeli pilots, giving an additional edge to Iran's efforts.
6. Other than a statement from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo offering condolences for the Russian dead and demanding an end to the Iranian weapons flow to Syria, and a mild statement from NSA Bolton on the S-300, the United States has had little to say. That is insufficient.
7. President Trump has rightly been castigated for his obsequiousness to Putin. But if his cultivation of Putin is worth anything, now is the time to deploy it for something useful.
8. The US should convey directly to Russia that it supports Israel’s legitimate campaign in Syria to prevent Iran from installing weapons to attack Israel, and opposes Russia providing the S-300 to Syria. A solidarity visit to Israel by a senior US defense official is in order.
9. The US should encourage other countries to join in condemning Iranian military adventures in Syria. The UNSC session that Trump will chair presents an excellent opportunity, although lingering disputes over the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal make it harder.
10. Trump made one positive move recently, indicating a reversal of his position that US troops would leave eastern Syria imminently.
11. As the counter-ISIS campaign nears completion, those troops still help prevent Iranian access to portions of Syria it could use to ship and base weapons. If Israel is constrained, US forces may yet be called upon to conduct more kinetic actions against Iranian weapons.
12. Finally, the Adm & Cong should accelerate, through advance approps, the $5b in missile-defense funding promised Israel over the next decade in the 2016 mil aid MOU. That will help ensure Israel is equipped to defend itself from the most dangerous Iranian weapons in Syria. END
