Thread by @Usherwood

Let's go over the renegotiation option once more:

1/

This is the idea that, having lost the meaningful vote on 11/12, May returns to Brussels to seek out some concessions on the Withdrawal Agt/Political Declaration, to then sell back to Parliament to secure approval

2/

The EU have said they'll not renegotiate, but surely there's more to it than that, right?

3/

Yes, there is, but not much more

4/

Let's work from the content of the texts, to reflect on where changes could occur

5/

Importantly, we need to consider the balance between where the EU might give ground and what MPs might consider valuable in changing their votes

6/

MPs have fixated most on the Irish backstop arrangements, so this would be the most promising area for May.

However, it's the bit the EU is least likely to give any ground on

7/

Remember that the backstop exists because the EU doesn't really trust the UK's word on protecting open borders (hence the hard legal text). It's why it took a good six months of talks mostly on this before agreement was reached

8/

To imagine the EU moving from its deeply entrenched position after a month is not a viable proposition, so maybe we have to find something else

9/

How about money and all those 'vast sums'? If May could kill off the 'divorce bill' narrative, maybe she'd have more of a chance?

10/

Maybe, but again, hard to see the EU moving.

The financial section was the first to be closed, so it's deeply embedded, plus it's framed in terms of principles that both sides have long agreed on: hard to now change those principles

11/

In addition, a lot of the money issue is down to maintaining full participation in EU activities during transition, so that's unavoidable

Unless...

12/

....unless you try to change transition. Remove that extension, trim down the period of following EU rules without a vote and sell it as a win.

Simple

13/

Except that transition's there to negotiate the future relationship.

The UK wanted transition in the first place, to avoid using the backstop, and any trimming of length means the backstop's use becomes likely (and we already established the backstop's here to stay)

14/

So transition changes will be very much cutting off one's nose

So what does that leave?

15/

The main remaining area of the WA is citizens' rights. Sad to say, I'm not sure that very many CON MPs rate this as important, so weakening these isn't going to be a game-changer for them

16/

Plus it'll enrage more opposition MPs, and the European Parliament, who'll have something to say about it (remember the latter also has to ratify the WA, so they matter)

17/

Which leaves the Political Declaration.

It's still not binding, so maybe movement is possible on the intentions for the future.

Equally, it's not binding, so MPs might not feel it means much

18/

In brief then, the areas where renegotiation might make the most difference in the Commons are the areas where renegotiation is least likely.

So if it does occur, I'd not expect much from it all

/end