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Paul Mason @paulmasonnews
, 7 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
How yesterday's Commons defeats change British politics
1. May will lose Deal vote
2. MPs will take control
3. Norway+ move will be tried by Tory grandees and will fail...
Those are the certainties... now the possibilities ...
- Possibility 50% and rising: May pulls the vote
- Possibility 25%: May forced to resign Javid-Rudd axis take over...
Both would need A50 extension...
If May still PM and vote is lost, I doubt Labour would go straight for confidence motion or back instant PV motion... Corbyn is lifelong parliamentarian + after Grieve amendment HoC has control...
The short term task for Labour is to allow Leave voters to learn by experience what is possible and what is not; and to allow Tory party to fall apart in office; and to defend parliamentary sovereignty until it no longer functions...
Once story upheavals begin, their desire to cling to office and take responsibility for capitulation and betrayal of the Leave voters will evaporate hence...
Corbyn chances of being PM by March I would say 50%. But the question is will the EU play ball?
Those who want to stop Brexit have rising justification that no majority exists for any form of it. They have to demonstrate statecraft and - for Labour - don't pay the price of winning a PV but losing an election.
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A Christmas message to the Conservative Party - enough with hard-right Jacobinism... get practical about a very soft Brexit or none ... (longer version on my @YouTube channel...)
Here's the full version:
Here's the @NewStatesman article where I argue the Tories have become as Jacobin and crazed as the people Edmund Burke railed against in 1790!
newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
Read 3 tweets
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Headlines full of liberal centrist demands on Corbyn to launch no confidence vote and call for 2nd referendum... if only liberal elite not spent two years trying to destroy him... Thread: 1/
2/ ... when the business elite simultaneously declare themselves "terrified" of a Corbyn Govt yet urge him to bring down Tories, what's really going on? A struggle for agency...
3/ There's no clear party representing the globalist ruling class in U.K. - Tories broken, Labour in hands of working class base, Libs irrelevant, SNP checked out of the motel...
Read 10 tweets
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Okay so I've been modelling the "indicative votes" route in Parliament supported by Rudd, Lidington etc... 1/ To model "every conceivable" option you have to model Labour's; let's call it Norway-minus...
2/ Suppose you ask MPs to pick ONLY their most favoured option. My guess is 60 Tories go for No Deal; 140 for Canada FTA; the rest split 55:60 for Norway Plus and PV...
3/ 10x DUP support Canada; 39 SNP/PC support Norway Plus; 1x Green supports PV; Libdems support PV
Read 10 tweets

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