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10 tweets,
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1/ Beating chests and raising war cries apart, today's air force attacks inside signal a change in Indian strategy with some implications.
2/ Now that this is the second publicised military counterstrike against Pakistan in response to its sponsorship of terror on Indian soil, India has effectively committed itself to a pattern
3/ Everytime a significant terror incident sourced from Pakistan is recorded, the govt of India will feel compelled to strike publicly. And each time the strikes will need to be as big / bigger than the past ones.
4/ What happens in Pakistan is much more easily controlled by its military who gives a flying fuck about elected governments and popular will. They have the ability to move the slider both ways.
5/ Now that the largest democracy on the planet is used to military counterstrikes as countermeasures to terror, it will bay for blood each time. And a popular govt will have far lesser flexibility to ratchet things down.
6/ This is a clear and likely irreversible path to more military actions until and unless Pakistan climbs down. That is probably already factored into the rationale. Sadly I don't see things stopping here. Yet.
7/ This is bad for the region, but we now have two powers fighting with enough nukes between them to send the whole world into a decades long dark winter. That would make the world uncomfortable for sure
8/ Given that but for China/Saudi siding with Pakistan, the world believes India is the victim of terror here, this is probably also a message India is sending to the world. We are going to ratchet things up. No stops. If Pak needs to be contained, no longer be our problem alone
9/ To those who think this thread is to suggest India should stop what it is doing, that's not true. It is meant to express that India probably is running out of choices, and implications thereof. I am not criticising Indian actions.
10/ For the record, I am regretfully supportive.
