Thread by @garrethhayes

THREAD. What would happen if the EU was leaving the UK, rather than the other way round?

Let’s imagine for some reason the EU had decided to kick the UK out. What would the UK need to do? 1/24

Top priority would be the status of 1.3m UK citizens living in EU countries. Imagine the outrage if the EU just shrugged its shoulders and didn’t consider what would happen to these people. After all, they had moved to the EU under FoM and that was now being taken away. 2/24

The UK Govt would be pushing for their healthcare coverage and ensuring they could stay as equal citizens in those countries. Imagine the tabloid headlines if the EU was ignoring a population equivalent to the UK’s second biggest city. 3/24

2. Next, freedom of movement. If the EU proposed cutting off the rights of UK citizens to live, love and work in the EU, the tabloids would go nuts. 4/24

A UK Govt, including voices from Scotland, would explain how the EU’s actions were damaging the UK economy. They would wheel out businesses in many sectors, including the NHS, who would explain the impact on the UK of losing these workers. 5/24

The UK Govt would say that the country simply isn’t ready to cope without EU workers. It could potentially prepare but training people with the right skills and giving companies time to plan would take at least 10 years and probably more. 6/24

3. Then the priority would be to secure the closest possible trading arrangement with the EU. This is the outcome that protects jobs and minimises the massive disruption of being outside the EU’s major systems and institutions. 7/24

Countless companies have based themselves in the UK because of its proximity to Europe. The UK Govt would be desperately fighting to maintain those connections, championing the people and businesses who had relied on this proximity. 8/24

They would not for a second accept anything less than an arrangement as close as possible to the one they currently have. If the EU pushed for a looser and more distant arrangement the UK Govt would be furious. 9/24

4. Then, Ireland. Having seen thousands of UK and Irish citizens killed and injured in The Troubles, and having finally secured peace, the UK Govt would be fighting to maintain the international status of the Good Friday Agreement. 10/24

If the EU for some reason wanted to put that at risk - by putting up a border, for example - the UK Govt would be leaning on history to make that case that this was unacceptable. They would wheel out John Major and Tony Blair to make that case. 11/24

And they would use the GFA as leverage to secure the closest possible alignment with the EU. The simple argument would be ‘we must keep our rules aligned in order to preserve peace in Ireland. So we will match your rules no matter what you do.’ 12/24

5. Next, the UK would have to think about creating a new regulatory framework. Imagine the outrage in the UK if the EU insisted the UK would no longer benefit from the efficiency of one system of rules and rule makers across 28 countries. 13/24

In that scenario the UK Govt would be working out which bodies would need to be replaced and how and where to create them and complaining - rightly - about the additional cost and red tape associated with creating a parallel system. 14/24

But no responsible Govt would be cut out of one system without having a detailed and costed plan to replace those organisations with something almost identical, ready to go on day one. 15/24

6. Next, the UK would be making a financial offer to the EU to preserve access to EU institutions and programs that greatly benefit the UK. Euratom, Erasmus, Open Skies and many others would be on a long list that the UK would be desperate to preserve. 16/24

They are part of the benefits of EU membership which enrich the UK and provide many key components of a modern interconnected world. The UK would be desperate to remain part of them. 17/24

7. Next, the rest of the world. With the growth of an aggressive and isolationist US the UK would be looking to stay as close as possible to the shelter of the EU. Going it alone would allow the US to pick off the UK, forcing its different regulations on us. 18/24

With the US, China, EU (and later India) set to dominate global trade in the 21st century, the UK would be looking to stay as close as possible to the EU in this world of trading giants. Its message to these giants would be: ‘we are effectively part of the EU. Back off.’ 19/24

8. Propaganda. Outside the EU, the countries that wish to weaken the UK would be pushing this case on social media and beyond. A UK Govt fighting for its own interests would clamp down on this deliberate misinformation. 20/24

The Government would regulate social media to ensure that ‘dark money’ designed to weaken the UK could not be used to run online campaigns. 21/24

Equally, if the EU was making a case against the UK that was based on lies rather than facts, the UK Govt would be diligently using reason to counteract this, fighting for the views of experts to be taken seriously and insisting on fact-based discussions. 22/24

9. Last, the EU itself. Given all the above the UK would be banging at the door of the EU begging to be let back in. It makes no strategic sense for the UK to be outside the EU and any rational Government would have joining the EU as its primary policy. 23/24

Sometimes it helps to look down the other end of the telescope to understand just what a massive mistake the UK is making and just how badly it has approached the subsequent separation. ENDS. 24/24