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Analysis of Libya from Iranian source. UAE hopes to enforce the "Egypt Model" to prevent democracy or another Arab Spring. Aka return of the Arab "Strong Man".
A Turkish splainer. Erdogan would like a Neo-Ottoman empire with Qatar and Russia keeping a low level presence against Haftar...and the GNA
When western institutions break down, fundamentalist grows. Libya has both Muslim Brotherhood and Saudi-backed Madkhalists who seek justice and an end to corruption. This exported concept is building across northern Africa, the ME and South Asia. crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…
The Madkhalis, Deobandi, taliban, al Qaeda, Salafis and other groups offer a transnational view of socialist style justice and grass roots opposition to imposed top down colonial-style strong man outside backed governments.
This rural based, pluralist concept of islamism is viewed as a new "communism" that swept across Africa in the post colonial era. Soon replaced by Strong Men backed by outside forces. Some retain power, others are overthrown. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c…
Statistically the postcolonial Strong Man is on the way out as Africa's education and quality of life improves. Libya and Equatorial Guinea were examples of "African Kuwaits" both eager to distance themselves from the U.S. and support African independence qz.com/africa/1471547…
Qaddafi fell and Obiang remains in power. Installing Haftar as a strong man assumes that Libyans have no interest in democracy and rule of law. A US survey says 60% of Libyans want a centralized strong government and security at the expense of democracy. ifes.org/surveys/new-su…
The kicker is that even though 60% don't mind a strong man, 70% want to exclude ex-Gaddafists. Which is how Libyans describe Haftar and his group. Serraj is considered weak. The actual Nat Salvation Govt which made a move on Tripoli in 2014 is sanctioned. ndi.org/sites/default/…
So the Misrata-based militias that killed Qaddafi and ousted ISIS are now prevented from being part of a political solution. The quiet power is in Misrata and their militias in Tripoli prop up the the GNA and are aligned with southern forces who support neither Serraj or Haftar.
So neither the UN or Haftar solutions will ultimately work because Libya sees itself as a single entity but wants to choose their own solution, not an outside imposed one. A nation of 6.3 million people neighboring Europe with 1.28 million barrels per day should do just fine.
In comparison In 2010 Venezuela produced 3.1 million barrels of oil per day and has a population of 31 million. Twice as much revenue but five times the population. Norway produces 2 million barrels a day and has 5.2m people. Obviously not the same situation but you get it.
The media iconography of Libya is perverse. Images of old men in foreign countries, salafists, unkempt militias and even locked up migrants rather than actual educated Libyans being interviewed about what is going on. The Libyan narrative and the revolution have been stolen. 
