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What I learned watching the Brexit Party campaigning in Essex today - a few thoughts/short thread
The Brexit Party is clearly focused on a "max turnout" strategy, targeting former UKIP & Leave vote strongholds like Essex. Consistent with Farage's past emphasis on appealing to his core vote
But it looks & feels different to what I saw with UKIP 2013-2015. One BP activist said he thinks the toxicity that followed UKIP has been lifted. Too early to know but Farage certainly gets much less hostility than he did when I watched him walking these towns 2013-15
I was struck by how few journalists, commentators & analysts are actually following Brexit Party on the ground. I saw a handful max. Seems odd given its significance & that we are only one week away from #EP2019
Farage & his team definitely have complete control over the party. This is a key difference I think from 2013-15 when UKIP's messy internal structures & amateurism held him back. Farage is much stronger internally than pre-EURef
Another big difference is digital. The BP operation is world away from UKIP. The videos & content are very regular & in hands of a very young, tech-savvy team. I think this could be important going forward. The main parties are going to have to find a way of navigating this
Messaging is also different. Farage is barely mentioning EU & immigration now. Doesn't have to. Is all about "broken politics" and "Westminster". References "democratic revolution" a lot. Strangely, he says all of this in more positive manner than the darker campaign of 2014-15
There is a lot of optimism about the direction of Conservatives. The Farage-ists feel confident they can handle Boris. Hancock or Rudd "would be a dream". They believe they can have a much harder run at the Conservatives than they did in 2015. Much more interest in Labour areas.
Suspect expectation management could be an issue. Brexit Party likely to win #EP2019 & then straight into Peterborough by-election in early June. Ideal timing for them but if win in former & struggle to mount big challenge in latter they might find narrative changes
That said, I've watched & interviewed this world since 2012 & never seen the confidence & professionalism of today. First past post remains their Mount Everest but there's no doubting Farage is up for it. Has money, members, less stigma & is already looking past #ep2019/ends
(p.s. apols for any Eurovision overlap!)
