Thread by @MacroTechnicals

MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum Weekly recap wk24 as of 14Jun19 - PFLUGPOST thread 1/n

• RISK ON continues
• Markets on fire with FED to cut in July, no Iran war, Trump to meet XI at G20 hope
• Creditspreads tighter, stocks rallied...
• YET: Gold up, Bonds up, Biz conf down

2/n update Global Markets overview as of wk24 YTD

3/n update Global Markets performance as of wk24 wk/mth/YTD/YoY

4/n update Global FX Matrix

• NOK good performance across with Brent rally and Norges Bank hike +25bp

5/n update Global Govt 10Y heatmap wk24

• new 52wk lows and bond rallies continue, but a lot are "overheating" - see Momentum/Trend/Exhaustion later

6/n update Global Govt 2Y 10Y curve FX heatmap wk24

• Turkey got downgraded (oh these lagging rating agencies)
• Norway Norges hiked as market expected
• FED/BOJ/BoE/BCB/BI/CBC all unchg, BSP did not the exp cut
• Europe still bull-flattening
• US continues re-steepen theme

7/n update Global Markets Momentum/Trends/Exhaustions wk24

• Bonds are overbought
• Gold, GDX broke out of long term consolidation and made new 52wk high
• NG looks oversold (COT)
• Corn looks overbought (COT)

8/n Creditmarkets : ITRAXX Corp (Main & XOVER) vs Financials (Sen & Subs)

• Huge RISK ON moves as the whole world re-ignites rate cuts, possible QE, ECB, FED, front running

9/n Creditmarkets US & EU benchmarks spreads tightened in RiskON move

10/n US Swap curves continue their re-steepening theme

• if (IF) history rhymes ... but the new normal distorts more than most think. In the old book, this used to be a great leading indicator by 12M...keep watching

11/n US stocks Breadth positive at the moment

12/n US Stocks Breadth 2 : New Highs / New Lows also positive at the moment

13/n US stocks impl vola : SPX vs VIX

• this is interesting as market made new ATH and VIX is NOT at complacent levels like before. Market expecting little elevated vola, and I really have no clue if with a major break out (and more diverging to Business confidence) or rollover

14/n VIX vs historical distribution

• is this coiling ? It's nowhere near complacency .

15/n PBoC balance sheet vs SPX

• coincidence or not, FED rate cut , ECB QE hope, PBoC helping, it's all pushing hope high.... while Global Business Confidence further deteriorates (US PMI flash 50.1)

16/n FOMC update . NEW DOT PLOT YEAH !

• the new quarterly "dot-plot-magic" is as expected totally collapsing compared to Dec2018 with the 9th hike. TOTAL JOKE!
• Tried my best to show consensus Dec18, Mar19 and new Jun19 with current FF futures.
• Welcome to Kashkari Line

17/n FOMC ...July rate cut is 100% priced in now... the only question remains: -25bp or -50bp ?

18/n FF vs 2Y vs FF calendar spread... of course FOMC is way behind the curve. who knew ?

19/n US Business Confidence last week

• NY Empire -8.6 (exp 11.0)
• Philly Fed 0.3 (exp 10.6)
• MarkIt M.PMI 50.1 (119M low)
• WHY ARE THOSE GUYS NOT BULL REBOUNDING LIKE THE STOCKS ??

20/n flash M.PMI last week

• US 50.1 (close but no cigar) 119M low
• Eurozone 47.8
• Japan 49.5

21/n US M.PMI flash vs SPX and US10Y

• The big bond move and current level was so much easier to understand and trade
• Stocks are diverging (not the first time) and trading the fully priced in FED cuts and QE4 (?), a China deal, and Mars landing

22/n Europe 5Y5Y Inflation expectations actually had a massive rebound last week... while BUNDs, OATs, BTPS, BONOs are overheating overbought...

23/n update on USDTRY theme

• RR and bond yields moved fast lower last 1-2 weeks
• Erdogan "congratulated" Istanbul results
• Turkish Lira will most likely CONTINUE the current rally... (so will $TUR )

24/n HEATWAVE in Europe ?

• recent massive US Corn move due to large flood, also lifted European Maize
• But next week heatwave warning could lift Maize out of this consolidation too for a 8-10% move next weeks, depending on how long heatwave lasts

25/n GOLD & GDX broke out. >

https://twitter.com/MacroTechnicals/status/1140975561877131265

26/n next week XXL Macro data

• US Dallas/Richmond/Kansas/Chicago Manufacturing
• US CB and UoM Consumer Confidence
• German IFO
• European ESI
• RBNZ (will be unchg)
...

27/n THATS ALL PEOPLE

enjoy the rest of the weekend/ Sunday.

and remember: Life is too short for long faces. (Yeah, that's from me)

Thank you all for your own contributions and help and fun.

xx

28/end

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