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Elijah J. Magnier
@ejmalrai
, 4 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
#Yemen:
#Houthis attacked , the largest attack ever since the beginning of the Saudi war on Yemen, with 10 armed drone#SaudiArabia Aramco al-Shaybah oil field and station, with 1 million barrel of oil storage capacity, 10 km south of the border to #AbuDhabi, a message to the #UAE
This is the new #Yemen Rule of Engagement, exposing armed drones capable of hitting targets over 1000 km away from Yemen and in #SaudiArabia land. It is also telling #Abudhabi: we can hit you any time if you don't seek political negotiation in Yemen.

If #Yemen has this kind of armed drones, all #Iran allies have the same in #Lebanon, #Syria, #Iraq and #Palestine.

Iran's enemies are powerful but Iran and its allies are enjoying powerful means to fight back. The US and allies's exclusivity is over.

If war in #Yemen continue, Houthis r capable to stop #SaudiArabia daily oil production. After many years of brutal war on #Yemen, Saudi did not learn that poor/ limited Yemen is producing weapons Saudi was never able to produce but purchase from the west

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#Yemen #Houthis #Abudhabi #UAE #SaudiArabia #Iran #Lebanon #Syria #Iraq #Palestine

More from @ejmalrai see all

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Elijah J. Magnier
@ejmalrai
1/+
On the 7th of July, we shall be facing a critical situation:
. #Iran will exert its right to partially or fully withdraw from the nuclear deal as stated in the comprehensive document.
. #US pushed Iran to leave the deal and would like to see Iran making this particular move
2/+
. #US is unlikely to stand down and will push media to point out the finger of blame on #Iran
. Iran can't pull back and its procedure of withdrawal will be gradual and will give a second ultimatum after implementing the first on next month. Iran won't stand down.
3/+
. #Iran warned: if my oil and petrochemical products can't be sold, the 17 million barrel of oil per day won't cross the Strait of Hormuz. This promise will be gradually increased and implemented.

What are the most likely scenarios?
Read 6 tweets
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Elijah J. Magnier
@ejmalrai
1/ +
#Iran and the war on oil Tankers:
US sanctions are severe and hurting the Iranian population dearly. Iran is not allowed to export its 2 million barrel of oil/day and can smuggle only a few hundred thousand.
This situation suits Trump who is waiting to see Iran falling
2/+
Iran can't wait. It has reliable allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan & Yemen who expressed their readiness to hit US & allies in the region regardless of the consequences.
It has a military capability to hurt the US bases & US allies in the ME & increase oil price.
3/+
Iran has the capability to hit Tankers on movement or static in harbours and close all harbours in the ME.

The US and allies can seriously hurt Iran but the US can't threaten a dying man of war.

Iran has nothing to lose anymore.

Read more in my forthcoming article.
Read 6 tweets
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Elijah J. Magnier
@ejmalrai
Who benefits from today's' attack on tankers?

1/+ Inevitably, accusations will go to #Iran for various reasons. This is one of the accusations but it doesn't mean it is correct. (read more)

2+/ Accusing #Iran is simple under the say: did it once, did it twice. Here I refer to the Fujeirah attack and the Aramco Houthi attack.

Nevertheless, there are big differences between the attack of today and the one a month ago.
3/+
. A month ago, the attack took place in territorial waters of the Emirates while today's attack is in international waters, increasing 10 folds the responsibilities of the attackers.
Read 8 tweets

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Filomena Rocha, President European Commission
@Filomen03258997
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EHSANI2
@EHSANI22
#SaudiArabia just revised its oil reserves up to 266.1 Billion barrels. Assuming these reserves are proven & not just estimated and a price of $50 per barrel, the market value of oil that the Kingdom is sitting on could be near $13.3 TRILLION. Note that this excludes gas reserves
2-#Saudi oil is also the cheapest to produce (approx $5 compared to $60 in #Venezuela) but the "Social Cost" of Saudi oil is as high as $80-90 per barrel. Kingdom's budget needs such prices to be in balance. This explains why Riyadh is seeking dollars by raising new debt
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@sibeledmonds
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