Thread by @HenrikZeberg

Good morning!😀Trust you are well and enjoying this Saturday morning. Deflation is developing in economy. Signs are very clear. Black swan will appear at some point. Stay tuned for a heads-up on my perspectives on market #HZupdates

#Copper sets the direction for real economy. My EW-model for Copper sets target A or more likely B to be reached some time in late 2021 or early 2022. Copper = Real economy. This is a pot. timeline for the total duration of the coming crisis (deflation & stagflation) #HZupdates

Zooming in on #Copper, we have seen the expected development this week. Break has been confirmed by small retest and acceleration. I think we will see further downside develop soon - but cannot rule out a pot. 2nd retest. The outlook for Copper is deflationary #HZupdates

#AUDUSD (inflation gauge) supports deflationary outlook. LT target <0.5 pot. to be reached ~Q1/Q2 2020. Look out for watershed moment. This is deflationary! Observe Q1/Q2 timeline. This pot. bottom in inflation is supported by commodity charts. Secular bottom?! #HZupdates

Zooming in on #AUDUSD we see drop from wedge - and a ongoing consolidation, which is Bearish. We may see small bounce from here, but major direction is down! Deflationary! #HZupdates

#Oil supporting deflationary outlook. Developing in Ending Diagonal (since 2008). Last push down <20USD before SECULAR bottom #HZupdates

Note! Oil, AUDUSD (and commodities) suggest bottom ~Q1/Q2 2020 - however #Copper seems to be bottoming later ~2021/22. This is the reason, I expect DEFLATION before STAGFLATION #HZupdates

#CRB #Commodities suggest another low in Ending Diagonal. Secular bottom in INFLATION CYCLE ~Q1/Q2? First phase is deflationary, whereas 2nd phase will likely be stagflationary as economy (#Copper) continues to slow as prices have bottomed and moving higher #HZupdates

Zooming in on #CRB #Commodities we see break of Triangle as part of wave 4 - a retest - and last week acceleration down. As #Copper we could see another bounce - but direction is down. Deflationary! We could be in the phase, where things become really ugly #blackswan #HZupdates

#SP500 #Equities follow the lead of #Copper and #CRB in the deflationary phase of downturn. I expect decline to accelerate and hit bottom ~2050ish around Q1/Q2 2020 before Fed steps in for Real! Coming weeks could become very ugly in equities (notice RSI and STOC) #HZupdates

#DAX looks terrible. Break of upward-sloping trendline will send German #equities much much lower. Target area to be reached late 2021/early 2022. Europe and EU will be epi-center of crisis #HZupdates

@threadreaderapp Please unroll :)