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Very nice summary on my thoughts in Ireland. For what it's worth, it also misses some points: No deal is likely to mean violence on UK side which will add to further pressure on UK to concede. Doing the WA may lead to violence, but rather limited. Why? Well, ... /1
The economic costs will be compared to a no deal rather limited. It will be painful but painful enough to revival of troubles? That's doubtful. No deal certainly has the potency and may swap over to GB. It's bad for peace on the island of Ireland but... /2
... it's the best shoot after backstop to maintain a status quo for all intends and purposes of Nationalists and Irish state. And let's be frank, why should EU side car about anyone else (e.g. the one's causing the mess)? /3
The other thing's that it's almost inevitable that HMG'll make further mistakes on NI (e.g. direct rule) which will further escalate the situation & may have an impact on e.g. Scotland. What I want to say: Don't ignore knock on effects! They will add further pressure onto UK. /4
My point here is, that UK can slide under some circumstances really fast in a state, where those ominous mini deals are vital. In that moment, guess what will be back on the table? Sure UK can say no and EU could increase further pressure plus stop mitigating procedures. /5
So why on earth should Ireland agree to ditching the backstop or a time limit? It's not about receiving the blame but also (justifiably) assuming that UK is unlikely to stand no deal without agreeing to backstop. 6/6
