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1. Netanyahu's statements on annexing parts of the West Bank today sound a lot like the ones he made just before Israel's election in April: An election-eve plea for votes, mostly. If they materialize after the election, that's different, and bad.
2. If Blue and White wins and Gantz is prime minister, highly unlikely his government would pursue it. A Likud government led by someone other than Netanyahu might try, but not clear they would have a coalition to endorse it.
3. If Netanyahu is able to form a government, the main issue is whether he will strike an "immunity-for-annexation" deal with his coalition partners. That was on the table in May but is harder to pull off now.
4. At least for today, the US avoided making the situation worse by signaling it will recognize unilateral Israeli annexation. Is the chaos surrounding Bolton's departure the reason? Is Trump hedging his bets that Netanyahu may lose? Or is the approval coming later. Not clear.
5. The question that matters is will the US recognize a unilateral Israeli annexation on any portion of the West Bank. If so, it's a huge, possibly fatal blow to dwindling prospects for two states. Is Trump willing to go that far? Maybe.
6. But Israelis excited about this prospect should bear in mind: this party could come with a hangover. In a little over a year, a Democratic successor to Trump would certainly withdraw the US recognition of this unilateral move.
7. It won't mean a lack of recognition of the serious security issues Israel faces in the Jordan Valley. All previous US mediation efforts have tried to address those needs with long-term Israeli presence and other measures. So will the next administration's.
8. But a reversal is a recipe for real tension in the US-Israel relationship. If it happens, some will blame the new POTUS. But if Israel, aided by Trump, puts them in that position with a move they see as seriously harming US interests, it shouldn't come as a surprise.
9. This decision has implications for the strategic, long-term view of strong US-Israel relations backed by a firm, stable bipartisan consensus. Trump has already demonstrated he doesn't care about that. Will Israel? <End>
