Thread by @hxhassan

ISIS just released a 30-minute new audio speech by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi titled "And Say, Act."

Baghdadi: half a decade has gone by & the Islamic State is still receiving new recruits, half a decade has gone by & even its enemies are saying it’s baqiya (remaining.)

Baghdadi: Coordinated attacks (conducted by ISIS across the region) are unprecedented in modern jihadist history.

Baghdadi: In four days, [ISIS] attacked in eight countries and on 92 targets, all specified in timing & targets. Not long after, [ISIS] attacked in 11 countries, in 61 operations in three days; then last year, within 10 days, in 10 wilayat, 152 operations.

Baghdadi says that not all operations would be reported and registered by the group, and the numbers could be higher. (Worthy note in terms of attacks announced or not announced by ISIS).

Baghdadi mentions various countries* in which ISIS operates with description of how the group views them, and then specifies Iraq & Syria as the capital/"stronghold of the caliphate.

Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, central & western Africa, East Asia, North Africa (Tunisia & Libya)

Baghdadi's speech is mostly preachy, but it also has important messages and an overview of latest developments in the region. Mostly focused on the neighborhood.

Tweeting some of the worthwhile messages, as much as I could.

For example, he contrasts his group's campaigns with the existing alternatives, obviously to appeal to like-minded extremists. He also stresses the logic of being part of his organization, and continuing its jihadi activities.

About timing:

The timing of the recording could be, at least in part, designed to coincide with the recent Russian campaign against the last rebel stronghold in northwestern Syria. Always an important target for the group's plan to recruit disillusioned jihadists, currently with AQ/offshoots.

(Perhaps not intentional & it's over-analyzing, but I noticed the emphasis on the word "nusra/succor" early on in the recording. Not a word he usually uses in his speeches. It also fits the message of the recording.)

He goes through a list of horrible things committed in the region: people killed in the Rabaa (massacre) of Egypt, the military takeover in Sudan, in Libya of Haftar & Sarraj, and in Yemen's "legitimate government" & "putschists."

Baghdadi orders his followers to accept "repentance" of anyone who has fought or been fighting the organization, and to "ensure they learn the affairs of their religion and why we have fought them."

Not surprising: a key part of Baghdadi's speech is those held in IDP camps & the humiliation women go through. Years from now, ISIS will be telling stories of key operatives from the #camps, a la (U.S. jail in Iraq) #Camp_Bucca

The subject of my new piece theguardian.com/world/2019/sep…

Baghdadi offers a number pieces of advice to his followers:

1. Accept tawbah/repentance from anyone the Islamic State is fighting
2. Become a role model
3. Don't do injustice/zulm/transgression
4. Release prisoners, even if ransoms are needed. Women in camps.

My main takeaway from #Baghdadi's speech just now:

The 30-minute speech is more locally and regionally focused than any previous recording by Baghdadi at least since 2014. Almost nothing about the West.

Aligns with my big-picture analysis in Feb. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

Baghdadi's main messages:

# Accept repentance
# Win over potential disillusioned jihadists in Syria etc
# Focus on regional theaters
# Emphasize the center of caliphate in Iraq+Syria
# Highlight massacres & mess-ups across the region
# Continuity & widening scope of ISIS jihad

End of my on-the-go take on Baghdadi's speech and the broader landscape.