Thread by @jseldin

Big news from the latest @UN report on #ISIS/#alQaida was ISIS' rebuild strategy and that much of it is being directed by Abu Bakr al-#Baghdadi out of Iraq

But there are a number of other interesting observations in the report...

On #alQaida, the @UN intelligence suggests the group although the health of AQ leader Ayman al-Zawahiri & AQ's succession plan "are in doubt"

The @UN report also concludes #alQaida-aligned groups "are stronger than their #ISIL [#ISIS] counterparts in #Idlib, #Syria|n Arab Republic, #Yemen, #Somalia and much of West #Africa"

Still, #ISIS "remains much stronger than #Al-Qaida in terms of finances, media profile and current combat experience and terrorist expertise"

Both see opportunity in the #Sahel & West Africa, where despite the ongoing rivalry, "fighters aligned with #Al-Qaida and #ISIL collaborate to undermine fragile national jurisdictions" according to the @UN report, threatening a growing number of countries

For example, the @UN report finds Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (#JNIM), an #alQaida affiliate that "dominates" in the #Sahel, cooperates w/#ISIS in the Greater Sahara (#ISGS) in #Mali & #Niger, where ISIS "has a strong position"

#alQaida #ISIS & other terror groups "in the Sahel are increasingly encroaching on the borders of #Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, #Ghana and #Togo" per the @UN report

In #Somalia, #alQaida-linked #alShabaab has forced #ISIS "to go underground even in its stronghold of Ceelasha Biyaha near #Mogadishu" according to the @UN report, despite the fact ISIS has made some inroads there & in #Puntland

According to @UN member state intel, #alShabaab is benefiting from "its institutionalized and secure revenue base"

The report also says #alShabaab managed to recruit some #Somali security personnel fired in a mass dismissal in early 2019, "boosting its capabilities with much-needed training, skills and insider knowledge of government operations"

In #Libya, #ISIS fighters "remain a significant threat in the subcoastal region, from south of the oil fields in the east to the borders with #Algeria in the west" according to the @UN report

#ISIS #Libya "is assessed still to have substantial financial resources ... reportedly investing some of its resources in small and medium-sized enterprises and in money transfer businesses in coastal cities" per the @UN report

Also, only 1 member of its leadership is not Libyan

Intelligence from @UN member states saw "the movement of fighters in small numbers from the [#Syria] and #Iraq to #Libya and #Algeria...through the #Sudan"

The report says Algeria intercepted & expelled up to 100 Syrians