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Moon Jae-in's F-35A check-in yesterday gets a reply. #NorthKorea
Single missile is interesting. They've tended to come in pairs this year.
Also, given the Trump administration's willingness to brush aside the short-range testing this year, no cost in testing for upcoming working-level talks.
Waiting for clarification.
Dual-track.
Now this is interesting: launched into Japan’s EEZ. It’s still likely an SRBM (can range Japanese EEZ with MLRS/KN23/Scud from Wonsan).
First launch into Japan’s EEZ since the November 28, 2017, launch of the Hwasong-15.
(Would be something if they launched again into the disputed EEZ around Dokdo.)
This is also North Korea’s first ballistic missile launch in the month of October since 2016.
Shimane suggests some range from Wonsan; EEZ is 200 km out so this could still be anything from the 600 mm MLRS or the KN23. Waiting for range/apogee/time-of-flight data.
This is not the longest-range missile-test this year, though. Wonsan to the Shimane coast is around 640 km. They did a 690 km-range KN23 test from the Hodo Peninsula in August.
(EEZ is 200 nautical miles out except where there’s another coastal state nearby. Shimane is close enough to South Korea that its less.) 
Wonsan to the Shimane EEZ is roughly 490 km. So this launch would be between 490 km to 640 km range.
Red = 490 km from approximately Wonsan.
Green = Japan’s EEZ
Green = Japan’s EEZ
So my guess is that this is probably a KN23 (pending data). Remember we had reports recently that MSDF/GSDF had trouble tracking North Korean missiles; maybe Kim wants a little more data on Japan’s sensor limits?
Also, on September 23, 24, and 28, North Korean media featured articles slamming #Japan over Aegis Ashore. That’s part of the context here too.
Japanese MoD also made an announcement on Aegis Ashore deployment plans last week. Between the Moon F-35A inspection and this, seems like Kim has enough in-theater to merit signaling-by-missile again. scmp.com/news/asia/east…
No North Korean missile launch has a single cause. In this case:
– continued R&D/testing & evaluation
– Moon F-35A
– Japan Aegis Ashore
– pre-working-level talks leverage
– continued R&D/testing & evaluation
– Moon F-35A
– Japan Aegis Ashore
– pre-working-level talks leverage
Note from @rachelminyoung1.
@rachelminyoung1 (A test on October 1 wouldn’t have been appreciated in Beijing.)
(Note: correcting units in above tweet — EEZs are 200 nmi, not km.)
@rachelminyoung1 @GeorgeWHerbert It’s possible they may be checking out if the Japan-based AN/TPY-2 X-band radar at Kyogamisaki sees this. (It clearly did, but NK did get useful ROK data by conduct low-altitude testing.)
@rachelminyoung1 @GeorgeWHerbert Time of impact data from Japan: 0717 and 0727 local time. 2 projectile 10 minutes apart—consistent with KN23 testing this year.
What!? From Wonsan?
This is straight from the Blue House. I wonder if we'll see KN23/ATACKims on a boat. SLBM seems quite unlikely.
With the latter, in particular, the canisterization would make a ShLBM (ship-launched ballistic missile) doable. (A solid-fuel version of India's Dhanush, of sorts.)
... Of *course* this is the first launch after I submit my book manuscript.
Oh no. It's lofted. That's a big one. Maximum Flight Altitude of 910 km and Distance of 450 km.
Blue House: "We decided to conduct a detailed analysis through close cooperation between US and US intelligence authorities, weighing the possibility of testing the submarine launch ballistic missile (SLBM) in relation to North Korea's launch today."
Big news. Yonhap now reporting. This is the longest-range-capable missile tested since November 28, 2018, with these numbers. #NorthKorea
910 km at 450 km is lofted. This is likely MRBM-class (and possibly an SLBM). Did they prepare the Gorae under the new Sinpo covering and flush it out to Wonsan? That’d be huge.
Type: 2017.
(lol, I typoed the word typo; this is going great.)
Or waters in between Sinpo and Wonsan if the Gorae sailed out.
So much about this test is deeply odd and concerning right now. I’m sitting out tweets until a clearer set of data emerges. Back soon.
