They are almost certainly leaving the country entirely. US forces depend on a ground supply line via Faysh Khabur in the far northeast, so we cannot withdraw southward into Deir ez Zour Province and sustain that presence
A sustainable presence in Deir ez Zour would require a new logistics train from Iraq, probably by air. By land would require traversing lots of terrain that we can't secure from #Iran's proxies.
I think at best a withdrawal south of the M4 highway would be a bid for time
And this all assumes the Arab #SDF elements would trust that the US wouldn't abandon them next
I expect our base at al #Tanf is next. We may not be withdrawing from that position now, but we've demonstrated we're not willing to stand and fight. Attacks on that position will follow, as likely will the final retreat of US forces
A few more thoughts on this withdrawal
This will be a controlled and phased process. US forces reportedly holding their position southwest of Kobani isnt a sign we're staying. They're likely securing that position to allow teams behind them to withdraw safely to a new phase line
This will be a controlled and phased process. US forces reportedly holding their position southwest of Kobani isnt a sign we're staying. They're likely securing that position to allow teams behind them to withdraw safely to a new phase line
The deployment of relatively small contingents of pro-#Assad forces to some areas does not change this process
It only changes the threat environment if they're stupid enough to try to attack. Reported US strikes on regime forces south of Raqqa in last 24 hours are a deterrent
It only changes the threat environment if they're stupid enough to try to attack. Reported US strikes on regime forces south of Raqqa in last 24 hours are a deterrent
