Profile picture
, 3 tweets, 2 min read
Jens Weidmann in an on-the-record event @CFR_org.

No new German stimulus under preparation.

No domestic case for more stimulus.

& almost no spillovers to the rest of the world (especially to the US) from a German stimulus ...
@CFR_org Germany may be on the edge of a technical recession (if q3 growth is negative) but, well, Germany was operating (in the Bundesbank's view) above potential before ...
@CFR_org Sobering for anyone hoping that the (obvious) German slowdown might lead to a reconsideration of the German policy mix (as a shift in German fiscal policy might change the EA outlook so as to change the ECB's stance)
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Brad Setser

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Brad_Setser see all

Profile picture
Brad Setser
@Brad_Setser
It seems likely that the release of the Treasury's FX report has been delayed, as Mnuchin wants more time to reach a determination on China.

That's shame. The most interesting questions the report needs to address don't actually involve China.

cfr.org/blog/anything-…
The August designation of China basically required moving away from a mechanistic application of the 3 Bennet Amendment criteria.

But it isn't clear if the Treasury is ditching the three criteria altogether, or just for China ...
Right now it often seems like the White House has one fx policy, and the Treasury another ...

When Trump talks of "manipulation" he isn't thinking about the Treasury report's 3 criteria. When the Treasury evaluates manipulation tho it generally has used those criteria ...
Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
Brad Setser
@Brad_Setser
Luckily Sweden has no shortage of fiscal space.

The only problem, as with other Northern European countries, is that Sweden doesn't seem to want to use that space even in a downturn.

(even when interest rates are negative and the scope for effective monetary policy is limited)
Bloomberg recently: "Sweden’s Social Democrat-led government is sticking to a surplus regime even as the labor market is showing signs of a rapid deterioration and economic growth has stalled."

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Larry Summers recently wrote: "Governments that run chronic surpluses are failing to do their part to support the global economy and should be the object of international scrutiny."

That applies to Germany obviously. But also Sweden, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Korea.
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Brad Setser
@Brad_Setser
There has been almost no change in the foreign exchange reserves reported on the PBOC's balance sheet in the past 2 years (apart from a brief period last fall).

It is an eerily quiet series. Somewhat too quiet I suspect

1/x
The data for September shows, cough, $0.5b in sales. Nothing.

And my guess is that if there is a "transparency" provision in the currency deal with the US, China will report intervention data that is suspiciously calm, and thus doesn't really tell us much.

2/x
China not only has huge state banks, but those big state banks have a massive foreign currency balance sheet. And there are other pools of state funds. Given the nature of China's economy it isn't hard to hide a bit of backdoor intervention.

3/x
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Filomena Rocha
@Filomen03258997
42. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria
#RegimeChange #FakeNews #FalseFlag #terrorism #SyriaInvasion #WarCrimes #CrimesAgainstHumanity
1 to 20. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria 🤨👇🏼
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1136642…
21 to 40. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria 🤨👇🏼
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1164175…
Read 396 tweets
Profile picture
Trippaddystudy
@TripPaddyStudy
#German Student Visa Interview Questions, Answers and Tips:

We can’t certainly conclude on the specific questions to be asked of the next German student #visa applicant,

Here are commonly asked questions to prepare for.

#TPStudyAbroad #StudyAbroad #Thread
These following questions matters:

1) Decision on why study in Germany.
2) Knowledge about Germany.
3) Information about future studies in Germany.
4) Current academic and work experience.
5) Blocked account and future financial status.
6) Common information about the study field.
7) Accommodation arrangement in Germany
8) Relationships with people living in Germany or #Europe maybe.
9) What you plan to do during Holidays and semester-break.
10) Your Plans of the future.
Read 14 tweets
Profile picture
Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
*NBS spokesman Mao Shengyong said that the international situation was bringing “downward pressure” on China.
*Link: bloom.bg/2RVX1ZA
🇫🇷 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 French tire maker Michelin warned of declining sales in Europe and #China in the second half of the year, dragging down shares of its competitors in the U.S. and Europe - Bloomberg
*Statement: bit.ly/2EujhqH
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇪🇺 In a volley of filings, the EU, #China and the U.S. this week escalated disputes over new U.S. metals tariffs, the European response to those levies, and Chinese intellectual property practices - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 634 tweets
Profile picture
Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
- Can be self sufficient if required
- Not trade dependent
#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…
cebglobal.com/talentdaily/au…
irishtimes.com/business/econo…
Read 338 tweets
Profile picture
GIRDS
@GIRD_S
1/ #German magazine .@DerSPIEGEL reports rising number of #xrw foreign fighters (2,500 now) joining Asow militia in #Ukraine to fight agst #Russia in current print issue.
2/ It is also reported Asow militia actively recruited openly during largest German #xrw concert in #Themar in July 2017. This shows how much underestimated the threat of #xrw foreign fighters compared to #jihadists is. Imagine outcry if #ISIS would openly recruit at a concert.
3/ And the issue is not new. German and other European #neonazis have for example fought in HOS militia in #Bosnian civil war. See this remarkable article featuring interviews with some of them. bit.ly/2yQrL8k
Read 9 tweets

Trending hashtags

#without #illegitimately #Official #InCaseYouMissedIt #eddington #EuropeSlowing #Algeria #Washington #Copper #SyriaInvasion #coveralbum #integrity #NEW #West #Daesh #Syrians #HumanitarianAid #Aleppo #UAE #Portugal #Ontario #Trump #Turkey #history #Kurdish
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!