Iran has made a calculation about extent of public retaliation they believe US would tolerate without further escalation.
This will not be Iran's only action, but there needs to be a careful consideration of damage and whether further direct confrontation now is in US interest.
This will not be Iran's only action, but there needs to be a careful consideration of damage and whether further direct confrontation now is in US interest.
I've seen some people note that taking out Soleimani in exchange for what appears to be a face-saving attack w/ no US casualties is a big win. They are correct, but this is unlikely to be Iran's only action. We should be prepared for less conventional attacks down the line.
With that said, there is a strong case for taking the W and avoiding further direct confrontation at this time. We should reinforce our alliance with Iraq as there will now be a competition over who they blame and how they react (Iran for the attack or us for being the targets).
