Thread by @Usherwood

Have been turning this over all day. It makes sense, but only if you neglect where it leaves you.

1/

https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1233668763117084673

This has two parts: internal and external

2/

Internally, you might well be able to lay blame at EU's feet, but it doesn't change that you're still in a rubbish situation, and one that you claim not to have wanted.

3/

Therefore you now have to still get on with building a situation that you do want, which will almost certainly involve an agreement of some kind

And there's no good reason to think EU would have softened its stance

4/

Either you managed to drop them in it (so they'll be even more cautious), or (much more likely) they'll argue you've been a shit (and they'll still be more cautious)

In both cases, you're stuck

5/

Externally (to UK-EU), collapse of this process does not help UK getting new deals with third countries, esp. those that haven't bought your line (ie, all of them)

6/

This point was well made on current episode of @tconnellyRTE Brexit Republic podcast: it's not at all a good look to be failing to follow through on your international commitments, esp. if you want to take on more of those commitments with others

7/

podcasts.google.com/?feed=aHR0cHM6…

So yes, HMG might well see scope to set this up for a crash, but that's at best a passing 'win', which doesn't even lock in the outcome

8/

As an aside, I'd also note the absence of planning for either no-deal or even the limited FTA which makes it even harder to defend the sincerity of your actions

9/

All of which takes me to a more parsimonious explanation: No.10 is making this up as they go along

#CockUpNotConspiracy

/end