Some in the markets are looking at Korea which, like China before it, seems to be controlling the #coronavirus spread. Don't. East Asians are not seeing the active case infection rate double every 3 days but Europe (even Italy still) and the US are. See next tweet 
East Asia has had school shut downs for weeks which has helped. Europe/US have not which means they are following the Italy playbook. The active #coronavirus case number per 100k in Switzerland is 6 days behind Italy. All schools were closed in Italy 5 days ago ...meanwhile ..
France and Germany are about 8-9 days behind Italy. Expect the Bundesliga to be suspended in 8 days and German schools needing to be closed in 5 days (it is a big debate in Germany already). The UK is probably 13-14 days behind Italy with implications for schools/football etc..
US testing has been a disaster and is still slow. We were expecting around 2,500 cases in the US to be reported by 11 March. The US #covid19 death total of 26 yesterday similar to Italy on 29 Feb when it had 2,700 cases (so US 11 days behind Italy)
The markets assumed 1) the virus was just a Wuhan story then 2) just China, 3) then China + Italy but latter could manage it well because it was a developed market and now hopes 4) UK/US/France/Germany are not Italy. Consistently wrong so far (I got caught by 2nd option as well)
The best case for western Europe and the US now is that media attention on Italy will worry the public, encourage a slowing of the infection rate vs Italy, and we might see faster government reactions after Italy's examples eg bring forward the school closure timeline above
Embarrassed to admit I found a mistake in the above tweet - Italy had 1,128 cases with 29 deaths - implying US yesterday maybe 1,000-1,100 (vs official 755) which puts the US ratio of cases/pop about 15 days behind Italy. I apologize
