@learning_pt An Epidemic Kills People by 4 Ways
IISS
Infection
Immunity
Starvation
Stampede
Infection - The Virus or Bacteria Destroys your cells
Immunity - The Virus or Bacteria does not directly destroy the cells. But the Immune reaction to the virus or bacteria destroys the cells
IISS
Infection
Immunity
Starvation
Stampede
Infection - The Virus or Bacteria Destroys your cells
Immunity - The Virus or Bacteria does not directly destroy the cells. But the Immune reaction to the virus or bacteria destroys the cells
@learning_pt Starvation : Food becomes Scarce or Money becomes scarce, mostly due to hoarding when panic is created by media or rumours
To Understand this, see this picture
This is the classic example of
Stampede : breakdown of law and order
To Understand this, see this picture
This is the classic example of
Stampede : breakdown of law and order
@learning_pt Now
What does Lock Down does
It reduces Death due to 1 and 2
It increased death due to 3 and 4
(4 initially comes down briefly, but once hunger sets is 4 increases)
Assume You lock down your country immediately
What will happen
There will be less death due to 1 and 2
but
What does Lock Down does
It reduces Death due to 1 and 2
It increased death due to 3 and 4
(4 initially comes down briefly, but once hunger sets is 4 increases)
Assume You lock down your country immediately
What will happen
There will be less death due to 1 and 2
but
@learning_pt Very High Deaths due to 3 and 4
If you are locking down very late
The deaths due to 1 and 2 will be very high, but due to 3 and 4 will be less
So
There is a right time
A right time
Where lockdown saves maximum lives from 1 and 2
loses minimum lives to 3 and 4
If you are locking down very late
The deaths due to 1 and 2 will be very high, but due to 3 and 4 will be less
So
There is a right time
A right time
Where lockdown saves maximum lives from 1 and 2
loses minimum lives to 3 and 4
@learning_pt This time
May vary from
Country to Country
State to State
District to District
City to City
Area to Area
Closing down or School and Colleges is easiest as the economic impacts of that are less
But
In everything else, The adverse effects also need to be considered
May vary from
Country to Country
State to State
District to District
City to City
Area to Area
Closing down or School and Colleges is easiest as the economic impacts of that are less
But
In everything else, The adverse effects also need to be considered
@learning_pt What happens when Trains are reduced
Over Crowding --> More Spread
This defeats the very purpose
So
order of Lockdown also is important
Trains, Buses
Metro
Which Order
That is important
Over Crowding --> More Spread
This defeats the very purpose
So
order of Lockdown also is important
Trains, Buses
Metro
Which Order
That is important
@learning_pt If you close hotels, what will the labourers without family do ?
Essentially Hotels will operate "underground" (like alcohol sales during prohibilition)
Hotels supplying food through backdoor for higher cost
may increase infection as well as starvation as well as stampede
Essentially Hotels will operate "underground" (like alcohol sales during prohibilition)
Hotels supplying food through backdoor for higher cost
may increase infection as well as starvation as well as stampede
@learning_pt So
Lots of Data and ground knowledge is required to decide
We do not have all these data or knowledge
Govt has
If they decide to announce something
it means
They take decision based on data which we don't have
So
It is best to support them
instead of giving advices :)
Lots of Data and ground knowledge is required to decide
We do not have all these data or knowledge
Govt has
If they decide to announce something
it means
They take decision based on data which we don't have
So
It is best to support them
instead of giving advices :)
