Thread by @ejmalrai

#France #Lebanon
French President @EmmanuelMacron's visit to Lebanon on the 1st of September was scheduled before the harbour's explosion. France did not present a "roadmap" to Lebanon because it has limited influence over the Lebanese politicians +

It is correct to say that #France managed to slow down the #US agressive approach toward #Lebanon but it is wrong to say that Paris and Washington agreed and have the same view on how to approach Lebanon.
The differences are: +

#France supports the participation of #Hezbollah in the future government. The French are more clever than the current US administration even if both support #Israel at the end of the day. Macron informed Hezbollah about his support to see the group in the new government +

With or without #France's support, #Hezbollah will be represented in the gov tomorrow, in a year & in a decade. However, Hezbo won't present a confrontational candidate but a professional technocrat even if he is not part of the group (the current Health Minister as an example).

The US rejects any participation of #Hezbollah to any government and it has supporters in #Lebanon among key poiliticians.

#SaudiArabia is careless about #Lebanon. Its condition is not to see Hezbollah part of any government and a PM totally dedicated (follows orders) to Riyadh.

The entire international community offered #Lebanon a bit less than $300 million while its official deficit as announced by the Central bank is $81 billion.

Many countries offered to rebuild tye harbour as an investment and not as a gift: #China, #France #UAE, #Qatar #Turkey...+

The Cendre plan offered $10 billion to #Lebanon but linked to reforms that the latest government of Hassan Diab failed to offer because the same politicians leading the countries are incapable of helping Lebanon out of its crisis they are responsible for.

Therefore, Macron is not bringing anything new. He is reiterating the same conditions #Lebanon is aware off since a couple fo years.

However, #US and #SaudiArabia refuse to help Lebanon as long as @General_Aoun is in power.

The Lebanese President understood that #Hezbollah represents an important part of the Lebanese society that can't be ignored. #Shia and #Christians were (and still are) the minority and were the target of the Sunni extremists in the Levant. Hezbollah managed to protect Lebanon +

#Hezbollah protected #Lebanon (and in particular the Christians) from the Takfiri. It was not #France or the #US and certainly not the #Saudi (that its schools' books were the bases of #ISIS aand al-Qaeda teaching as we say in #Syria, #Iraq and #Yemen) who protected Lebanon.

#US have no demands in #Lebanon. #Israel has and the US adopts the Israeli demands. No US cares about what is happening in #Lebanon coz, even if Geography is not something the US like, Lebanon has no borders with the USA & anything happening in that part doesn't affect the USA.

#Israel (the US) wants:
disarm #Hezbollah;
prevent the right of return of the Palestinians refugees & keep them in #Lebanon;
take a chunk of Lebanon's land & sea;
sign a peace deal w/ Lebanon (where the gov doesn't ask to buy F-35 #sarcasm)
isolate Lebanon from Iran and Syria

These demands can't be met today under #US Pr Donald Trump or Joe Biden or any other future president coz every single #US president asks the Lebanese government, since the 90s, to fulfil the Israeli demands.

So Macron is not a decision-maker in #Lebanon. He is one among many.