BREAKING - reports of explosions heard near #Jerusalem, #Beersheeba, #Dimona & multiple other locations amid rocket sirens in #Israel.

Security sources say #IAJ jets have been “scrambled.”
#pt: Some sources say a rocket or missile may have been intercepted near #Dimona, #Israel.

Others say residences near the area shook during the explosion.
Security sources in #Israel seem unanimous that no rockets crossed from #Gaza, so all eyes on the #Syria border.

Claims of a Patriot interception would suggest a larger-than-normal projectile, so suspicion may fall onto #Iran#Dimona is home to #Israel’s nuclear facility.
Suffice to say, if #Iran or an #IRGC proxy launched any kind of missile at/towards #Dimona & #Israel’s nuclear facility, #Netanyahu will almost certainly find no other option but to hit back v hard.

Amid “progress” on indirect US-#Iran talks, this would throw a *huge* curveball.
NEW - sources say an #Israel airstrike has hit #Iran-linked weapons stores in #Deraa, #Syria — shortly after explosions were reported near #Dimona, #Israel.
UPDATE - judging by latest reporting, it sounds possible that the projectile intercepted near #Dimona was actually a #Syria surface-to-air missile fired in response to #IAF strikes in southern #Syria. The SAM (as always) missed any #IAF aircraft & flew cross-border into #Israel.
Now coordinated messaging from #Damascus & #Jerusalem both claiming a SAM was fired into #Syrian airspace that then traversed into #Israel — unintentionally traveling towards #Dimona.

Meanwhile, #IRGC channels (speaking to their audience) claim a purposeful attack took place.
In #Damascus now, @MEI_Syria's @Dannymakkisyria says he didn't hear any sign of IAF strikes in #Syria *before* the SAM was supposedly fired at aircraft & then traveled towards #Israel -- "only retaliatory strikes later."

Mysterious events tonight.

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More from @Charles_Lister

31 Mar
If you read between the lines, this means #Assad's economy was doing OK when #ISIS controlled the oil fields, but when the #SDF took them, the regime suffered.

That's quite an admission -- so perhaps the documented & sanctioned oil trade between #ISIS & #Assad really mattered!
Just in case the tweets are deleted, here they are...

More broadly, #Assad's regime lost control of almost all its oil in 2014 -- 3yrs before this 'game-changing' moment cited from 2017.

In truth, @joshua_landis
& George Saghir are making a political, not analytical statement.
@joshua_landis If you want to be analytical (& truthful), take a look at the evolution of #Syria's economy -- like this chart by @Karam__Shaar shows.

Now, does October 2017 look like a game-changing moment? No.

Does the start of #Lebanon's banking crisis? Irrefutably, yes.
Read 4 tweets
30 Mar
NEW -- Donors at #SyriaConf2021 have pledged a total of $6.4bn.

That's an enormous $3.6bn short of what the @UN needs to meet the increasing humanitarian needs in #Syria.
@UN A few more pledges for #Syria:

#EU: $657m
#Saudi: $560m
#Sweden: $97m
#Italy: $52m
#UAE: $30m

And a note on the $6.4bn total -- that's multi-year pledges. For 2021 alone, the figure is $4.2bn, less than half of what's needed.
Read 4 tweets
30 Mar
Very interesting -- ahead of the D-#ISIS Small Group meeting, @aawsat_News says the coalition is considering expanding policy to include combating #ISIS in areas controlled by the #Assad-#Russia-#Iran alliance, which it says has "failed" to defeat #ISIS.

aawsat.com/node/2887216
@aawsat_News It's been clear for a long time that #ISIS's resurgence, particularly in #Syria's central 'Badiya' desert was (a) sustainable & (b) eventually going to spillover into @CJTFOIR/#SDF areas on the eastern side of the #Euphrates.

We can sit & watch, or act.

@aawsat_News @CJTFOIR The @aawsat_News report says the D-#ISIS Coalition is working on a public statement in which 2 areas of pro-#Assad control -- the (1) Badiya & (2) #Syria-#Iraq border region -- could become areas of [aerial] @CJTFOIR operation.

The border is critical for logistics, finance etc.
Read 8 tweets
29 Mar
It's a big day in the #Syria policy world, as #SyriaConf2021 kicks off in #Brussels & @SecBlinken chairs a UNSC session on humanitarian aid in #Syria.

BIG kudos to @ABlinken for taking this on & raising the vital aid issue onto the front-burner.
@SecBlinken @ABlinken NEW - As has so often been the case, when the international community convenes high-level #Syria events (#SyriaConf2021 & UNSC), #Russia's jets take to the sky & drop bombs.

Multiple airstrikes being reported in #Idlib right now.
@SecBlinken @ABlinken In 10mins, @SecBlinken will chair a UNSC session on humanitarian aid in #Syria.

Last week, Jeff Feltman & I wrote something for @politico calling for high-level diplomacy to sustain unhindered cross-border aid access. There's nothing more important now:

Read 21 tweets
26 Mar
With the #Biden administration settled in, there's a clear trend emerging in certain circles to swat away long-standing, complex foreign policy challenges -- and #Syria appears to be low-hanging fruit.

'#Syria doesn't matter,' some say... 'It was just never that important.'
It's good for there to be a debate -- & yes, 'great power competition' (#China, #Russia etc.) ought to be *the* priority.

BUT to shove #Syria aside as a minor inconvenience would be profoundly reckless, given the extraordinary costs it's inflicted on global stability since '11.
So far, arguments in favor of '#Syria doesn't matter' can be broken down into 2 camps:

(1) Those who ignore the profound past, current & future costs altogether - or worse - (2) those who astonishingly claim that #Assad, #Russia & #Iran can resolve the crisis & achieve stability
Read 16 tweets
25 Mar
Exclusive -- the March 21 attack on the @UN-deconflicted al-Atareb hospital in NW #Syria involved the use of #Russian "Krasnopol" laser-guided artillery shells, guided precisely to their target by a Russian UAV.

Extensive analysis of munition debris shows a direct correlation.
@UN Shortly after the attack, doctors & rescue workers began recovering remnants of the shells that hit al-Atareb hospital.

In addition to the usual metal shrapnel, they found circuit boards -- a tell-tale sign of precision-guidance tech, in this case, in artillery shells.
@UN That piqued my interest & in the days since, employees of al-Atareb hospital (associated with @sams_usa) gathered all the shell debris, removed it to a safe site & photographed it for analysis.

It soon became clear we were looking at *certain* evidence of Krasnopol munitions.
Read 9 tweets

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