CAT global update: Glasgow has a credibility gap between talk and action. If all govts met their 2030 targets, we would have 2.4˚C of warming in 2100. But right now, current policies put us at 2.7˚C.
A Thread 🧵
The 2030 #emissionsgap has only closed by 15-17% in the past year. Global GHG’s in 2030 will still be twice as high as what’s needed for 1.5˚C
There’s still a massive 19-23 gigatonne gap betw 2030 targets & 1.5˚C compatibility in 2030. These are the countries impacting the gap. What’s stopping action? #natgas & #coal. Still too much coal in the pipeline, and gas is still a fossil fuel /4
While our “optimistic” scenario #netzero reaches 1.8˚C, peaking 1.9 (similar to @IEA), there’s still a 1˚C gap between talk and action. The net zero announcements from > 140 countries (90% of global emissions) need much closer examination. /5
Of the 40 countries we analyse, we rate only four #NetZero targets “acceptable” - 6% of global emissions. Four “average”, four “poor”. The rest have so little info we couldn’t analyse them, rated “Information incomplete” These are the worst /6
We have analysed the updated 2030 targets. Some have increased ambition, but some only a little. Many of our 40 countries haven’t increased ambition at all. /7
Fact: w/out stronger 2030 targets, we won’t get to #netzero.

If #COP26Glasgow wants to close its credibility gap, govts must bring stronger targets to #COP27 & close finance gap, essential for developing countries to decarbonise.

Five years is too late for 1.5˚C

8. Finally, #natgas, #coal & sector initiatives must go beyond existing commitments to have any climate impact, otherwise just window dressing. Some of #methane announcements were already baked in (eg US). We hope to bring you more on these pledges and their impacts tomorrow.

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More from @climateactiontr

1 Dec 20
BREAKING: If all governments were to meet their promised #NetZero targets, warming in 2100 would be 2.1˚C. Our new analysis - full report here THREAD
2/ Our estimates include 127 government net zero promises, totalling more than 63% of global emissions. Including China, the US (Biden's promise), Japan, South Korea.
3/ It's clear the #ParisAgreement is having an impact. This graphic shows the history of how we got here. Our full report here #climate #unfccc
Read 4 tweets
23 Sep 20
1/ Governments are largely not making #ClimateChange action central to their COVID-19 recovery packages, despite some signs of good intentions - our new briefing for #CWNY, released today
2/ We've analysed the post-#COVID_19 #recovery packages of 5 countries: #China, #EU27, #India, #SouthKorea and the #USA. Only two lean towards using the pandemic recovery to address the global #climate crisis: the EU27, and South Korea. First, we looked at overarching packages.
3/ We assessed 106 domestic measures across the 5 countries, differentiating between overarching packages & individual interventions, and rated them. The picture is not the most encouraging.
Read 4 tweets
13 Aug 20
1/ Continuing our threads this week on our #ParisAgreement-compatible benchmarks report, we first turn to #transport and the share of #electricvehicles, hugely important for #decarbonising our economy. Read on...
2/ For all #transport in all countries, low carbon fuels (#electricity, #hydrogen or #biomass) need to be at ~15-20% by 2030, & toward 100% in 2050. While 2030 benchmarks vary, all converge to global decarbonised transport sector by 2050. See our report Image
3/ Passenger #electricVehicles (or other #zeroemission vehicles) need to reach v high market share by 2030 almost everywhere (developed countries 95% market share) & 100% by 2040. The global passenger #car fleet will be almost 100% #emissions free by 2050. Image
Read 4 tweets
12 Aug 20
1/ Today's thread on our #ParisAgreement-compatible benchmarks report: all countries must decarbonise their #electricity sector by 2040, latest 2050. Emissions intensity must get to zero. #power #decarbonisation - see report here Image
2/ #Decarbonising the #power sector is key: without it, other sectors cannot do so. The 2030 benchmarks are also key - if countries are not on the right pathway by 2030, they cannot reach their 2050 goal. #renewables
3/ All countries must ramp-up #renewables (or other CO2-free technologies), to 98-100%, ideally by 2040, latest 2050. Fossil #CCS not viable: economically it doesn't stack up against #renewables with storage; current #nuclear not nimble enough. Image
Read 5 tweets
11 Aug 20
1/Today, we launch a new project: defining & analysing a series of global & country-level #ParisAgreement-compatible #decarbonisation benchmarks, across four major sectors: #Power, #Transport, #Industry, #Buildings, each w benchmarks for several indicators Image
2/ We've derived 2030 & 2050 sectoral benchmarks for seven countries: #Brazil, #China, #EU, #India, #Indonesia, #SouthAfrica, the #US, taking into account each country's technical, infrastructure & economic circumstances #decarbonisation. Summary report:
3/ Our benchmarks are at a level of “highest plausible ambition" - technically, economically feasible, consider existing infrastructure, ensure they push the boundaries on all levels, & increase our chances of meeting the #ParisAgreement #1o5C limit
Read 5 tweets
10 Dec 19
See our new #COP25Madrid update: little sign of government action in the face of the #climate crisis. Their policies still take us to 3˚C, twice the #ParisAgreement warming limit. briefing: Watch our pressconf here [re-thread] Image
The emissions gap in 2100 really has not decreased a great deal. #COP25Madrid. Noting this is not steady state warming, but simply warming in 2100 Image
Details of government action: there are more governments this year on the 2˚C compatible list. We have added #kenya to our assessment this year, a country dealing with two proposed #coal plants it doesn't need. #COP25Madrid #India could be 1.5˚C compatible Image
Read 6 tweets

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