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Nov 12, 2021 • 9 tweets • 15 min read
Honored to be interviewed by @GrecianFormula on @DeptofDefense's 2021 #China #Military Power Report!

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…

Read my big picture takeaways & recommendations for @POTUS/@SecDef @19_forty_five!

Implications for #NationalSecurity Strategy, #Nuclear Posture Review.
#Pentagon's #China #Military Power Report is a 173-page treasure trove!

After my all-nighter 6-page summary—bit.ly/DoD-CMPR—I'm still finding food for thought...

Here are some new reflections from my interview w/ @GrecianFormula @19_forty_five:

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po… Image
CMPR's biggest revelation? Most would say #nuclear #weapons buildup:

#PRC may have up to 700 deliverable #nuke warheads by 2027, of which roughly 200 warheads will be on land-based #ICBMs capable of threatening US; & at least 1,000 nuke warheads by 2030.

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…
On that note, @fravel shows only top #PRC leaders shape #nuclear #strategy:

bit.ly/ChinaMilStrat

After relative restraint under #Mao/#Deng, are we now witnessing more assertive nuclear posture emerging under #Xi?

Numbers, triad, hypersonics, possible low-yield suggests so.. ImageImage
Now let's review: bit.ly/CMPRs

Biggest change since 2020 #CMPR?—2030 #PRC #nuclear warhead projection increase from ~doubling to ~quadrupling!

Since 2000 CMPR?—Suggestion that PRC now seeks to equal/exceed US power & influence by mid-century!

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po… Image
“The #PRC’s #strategy aims to achieve ‘the great rejuvenation of the #Chinese nation’ by 2049 to match or surpass US global influence & power, displace US alliances & #security partnerships in the #IndoPacific region, & revise the #international order to be more advantageous....” Image
The CMPR doesn't make these statements lightly. Rather, they're backed by extensive #USG data & analysis—

—all curated under leading expert #China DASD
@Michael_S_Chase

defense.gov/About/Biograph…

Dr. Chase has a long track record of scholarship/analysis:

bit.ly/ProfChase Image
Now—my personal recs:

1) @SecDef, pls. define #PRC "pacing challenge."
2) Ensure we're ready for threat to #Taiwan peaking by 2027.
3) Ensure NSS, etc. FULLY reflect CMPR realities.
3a) Preserve (extended)deterrence 100% in #Nuke Posture Review.

Details: 19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…
Parting shot:

#CMPR shows urgency/stakes in deterring #PRC aggression.

Next yr's #defense #budget must align money/mouth.

As @POTUS himself once so wisely said—“Don’t tell me what you value, show me your budget & I’ll tell you what you value.”

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…

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More from @AndrewSErickson

Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Feb 24
As tonight’s unfolding #Ukraine tragedy underscores only too starkly—

—the @POTUS @JoeBiden Administration MUST PRESERVE (extended)#DETERRENCE 100% in the forthcoming #Nuclear Posture Review/#NPR.

Must avoid not only “#NoFirstUse/#NFU”—BUT ALSO “#SolePurpose”—road to perdition!
Virtue signaling is no substitute for #deterrence signaling!

The #NPR must avoid not only widely-dismissed “#NoFirstUse” (#NFU) language, but also the dangerous concept of “#SolePurpose.”

Text/graphics from @DeptofDefense 2021 #China #Military Power Report show key reasons why. ImageImageImageImage
“#SolePurpose” = unacceptably erosive/destabilizing, not a no-or-low-cost #VirtueSignaling sop to #ArmsControl idealism.

Would reduce credibility/#deterrent of @POTUS’s potential counters to massive #conventional offensives by #Russia/#China.

Tragic reminder tonight in #Ukraine ImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Feb 11
New US #IndoPacific #Strategy!

Read full text here: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…

"The #PRC..pursues a sphere of influence in the Indo-#Pacific & seeks to become the world’s most influential power. The PRC’s coercion & aggression spans the globe, but..is most acute in..Indo-Pacific."
#INDOPACIFIC: The Region by the #s

♦ #POPULATION: Over half the world’s people, including 58% of youth

♦ #ECONOMY: 60% of global GDP

♦ #GROWTH: 2/3 of global economic growth

♦ #GEOGRAPHY: 65% of the world’s oceans &🌊 25% of its land

>#STRATEGY: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
From the new U.S. #IndoPacific #Strategy:

"The United States is the leading international provider
of education to students from the Indo-#Pacific—nearly 68% of international students studying in the United States hail from the region..."

Read full text: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
Read 13 tweets
Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Jan 16
Now Out in Paperback! “#China Goes to #Sea: #Maritime Transformation in Comparative Historical Perspective”

amazon.com/China-Goes-Sea…

@NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime is proud to publish this new version w/ @NavalInstitute @USNIBooks!

Come for the #maps, stay for the #history...
Honored to have #JonathanSpence’s endorsement:

“The maritime #history of #China has long been a neglected field..China Goes to Sea bring[s] that knowledge-gap to an end..will be an indispensable companion to those readers seeking to understand where China’s navy may be heading.”
As European #naval powers & even the @USNavy struggle with ship numbers, #China has gone to #sea.

Represents the reversal of a great historical trend that began 600 years ago, when China withdrew from the seas & European naval expansion spread Western influence around the globe.
Read 34 tweets
Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Jan 1
#Global #PartyPanopticon:

#PRC "gov't, which has built an extensive digital infrastructure & security apparatus to ctrl dissent on its own platforms, is going to even greater lengths to extend its internet dragnet to unmask & silence those who criticize"

nytimes.com/2021/12/31/bus…
...the #PRC "on @Twitter, @Facebook & other international #SocialMedia.

These new investigations, targeting sites blocked inside #China, are relying on sophisticated technological methods to expand the reach of #Chinese authorities & the list of targets"

nytimes.com/2021/12/31/bus…
"To hunt people, [#PRC] security forces use advanced investigation #software, #PublicRecords & #databases to find all their #PersonalInformation & international #SocialMedia presence.

The operations sometimes target those living beyond #China’s borders."

nytimes.com/2021/12/31/bus…
Read 12 tweets
Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Dec 20, 2021
#Read this new #Report while there’s still time to act!

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

“US-#China Competition Enters the Decade of Max Danger: #Policy Ideas to Avoid Losing the 2020s”

My latest with Gabe Collins @BakerInstitute!

@RiceUniversity
@RiceUNews
@CES_Baker_Inst
#Xi
#Taiwan
As #PRC/#CCP power peaks over this decade, #Xi may seek #Taiwan as historic prize.

To protect their security & rules-based order, US/Allies must mobilize immediately to deter aggression.

The mission is vital, the stakes are high, & the clock is ticking.

bit.ly/PLA2027 Image
US/Allies/#Taiwan now face “#DecadeOfDanger” w/ peaking #Xi/#CCP/#PRC as #China has extreme version of “S-Curved #slowdown.”

Xi’s risk acceptance will likely be amplified by his track record of largely-uncountered revisionist actions vs. neighbors & RBO.

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…
Read 42 tweets
Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Sep 13, 2021
There’s a gaping (loop)hole in #climate reporting, calculations & countermeasures—#BlueCarbon!

Must finally put #Seabed #CarbonSink on agenda for #COP26...

Here too #China leads world in #carbon damage—by far.

Time for accountability on #RoadToGlasgow!

foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/10/chi…
#Ocean covers 71% of world’s surface..<10% mapped w/ modern sonar.

Salt marshes, mangroves, seagrass beds & ultra-deep abyssal #seabed absorb large quantities of #CO2 from atmosphere & balancing critical #climate systems.

Disrupting risks grave & potentially irreversible harms
.@Nature: “#marine sediments are the largest pool of organic #carbon on the planet.”

Est. vol. ~7 trillion metric tons—>3X cumulative anthropogenic #CO2 emissions since 1750.

Bottom trawl #fishing & #seabed mining—both #PRC-led—risk damaging disruption.

foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/10/chi…
Read 25 tweets

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