Now that #COP26 is over, what kind of momentum do we need in 2022 to drive real emissions reductions and bring 1.5°C back from the edge? A 🧵 - and a blog bit.ly/CAT_postCOP26
Our new rating system allows us to look at who needs to do what. First, a major overhaul of #NDCs, a number of which fall short of what's fair & needed to be in line w 1.5˚C. Some didn't increase ambition at all: here's looking at you, Australia 🇦🇺 Brazil 🇧🇷 Mexico🇲🇽 Russia 🇷🇺 /2
Targets: Some have increased ambition but need to go further - particularly Canada 🇨🇦 EU 🇪🇺 Japan 🇯🇵 Norway 🇳🇴 Switzerland 🇨🇭 and US 🇺🇸. Both China 🇨🇳 India 🇮🇳 are already set to meet their (weak) announced or submitted targets /3
#Finance is key to unlocking mitigation potential, and while the #COP26 finance efforts welcome, little has changed in the Finance ratings we assessed in September. /4
Update NDCs in line w sectoral initiatives: Govts who've made sectoral pledges need to take action to meet them. Those who didn't sign shld do so, eg China 🇨🇳 India 🇮🇳 Russia 🇷🇺 on methane; Germany 🇩🇪 Japan 🇯🇵 US 🇺🇸 on transport; Australia🇦🇺 China🇨🇳 India 🇮🇳 US 🇺🇸 on #coal /5
The new #Article6 rules cld provide an escape hatch from domestic #decarbonisaton. The rules allow material carryover of Kyoto-era units and set a poor precedent for driving ambitious new action. Will govts do the right thing? blog bit.ly/CAT_postCOP26
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CAT global update: Glasgow has a credibility gap between talk and action. If all govts met their 2030 targets, we would have 2.4˚C of warming in 2100. But right now, current policies put us at 2.7˚C. bit.ly/CAT_Global2021
A Thread 🧵
The 2030 #emissionsgap has only closed by 15-17% in the past year. Global GHG’s in 2030 will still be twice as high as what’s needed for 1.5˚C #COP26Glasgow
/3
There’s still a massive 19-23 gigatonne gap betw 2030 targets & 1.5˚C compatibility in 2030. These are the countries impacting the gap. What’s stopping action? #natgas & #coal. Still too much coal in the pipeline, and gas is still a fossil fuel /4
BREAKING: If all governments were to meet their promised #NetZero targets, warming in 2100 would be 2.1˚C. Our new analysis - full report here bit.ly/CAT_Nov2020 THREAD
2/ Our estimates include 127 government net zero promises, totalling more than 63% of global emissions. Including China, the US (Biden's promise), Japan, South Korea. bit.ly/CAT_Nov2020
1/ Governments are largely not making #ClimateChange action central to their COVID-19 recovery packages, despite some signs of good intentions - our new briefing for #CWNY, released today bit.ly/CAT_CWNY_2020
2/ We've analysed the post-#COVID_19#recovery packages of 5 countries: #China, #EU27, #India, #SouthKorea and the #USA. Only two lean towards using the pandemic recovery to address the global #climate crisis: the EU27, and South Korea. First, we looked at overarching packages.
3/ We assessed 106 domestic measures across the 5 countries, differentiating between overarching packages & individual interventions, and rated them. The picture is not the most encouraging.
2/ For all #transport in all countries, low carbon fuels (#electricity, #hydrogen or #biomass) need to be at ~15-20% by 2030, & toward 100% in 2050. While 2030 benchmarks vary, all converge to global decarbonised transport sector by 2050. See our report bit.ly/CAT_PSRsum
3/ Passenger #electricVehicles (or other #zeroemission vehicles) need to reach v high market share by 2030 almost everywhere (developed countries 95% market share) & 100% by 2040. The global passenger #car fleet will be almost 100% #emissions free by 2050. bit.ly/CAT_PSRsum
2/ #Decarbonising the #power sector is key: without it, other sectors cannot do so. The 2030 benchmarks are also key - if countries are not on the right pathway by 2030, they cannot reach their 2050 goal. #renewablesbit.ly/CAT_PSR1
3/ All countries must ramp-up #renewables (or other CO2-free technologies), to 98-100%, ideally by 2040, latest 2050. Fossil #CCS not viable: economically it doesn't stack up against #renewables with storage; current #nuclear not nimble enough. bit.ly/CAT_PSRsum
3/ Our benchmarks are at a level of “highest plausible ambition" - technically, economically feasible, consider existing infrastructure, ensure they push the boundaries on all levels, & increase our chances of meeting the #ParisAgreement#1o5C limit bit.ly/CAT_PSRsum