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I continue to believe the Neustadt analyses of Trump is the correct one: a weak POTUS in serious danger of a complete failed presidency. 1/
It’s true Trump could provoke a serious political (or even constitutional) crisis soon, firing Mueller or preemptively pardoning people. 2/
But precisely because he is in such a weak political position, I think he’s less likely to do so, and likely to lose if he does. 3/
In effect, provoking a political crisis here would be a Hail Mary pass by someone completely boxed in. It’d be obvious. 4/
But I think this requires some context. There’s an idea out there that Trump is powerful and GOP scared of him. 5/
The first is laughably false. Measured relative to any other modern president, Trump is ridiculously weak. 6/
His entire presidency has, thus far, been a crisis of political legitimacy. 7/
He has very little control over his administration, almost none over the policy agenda. 8/
His professional reputation is zero. He is untrusted by his own congressional party. 9/
His public approval is awful. His legislative presidency so far is a total fail. Investigations are closing in on him. 10/
He’s locked in a battle with the career civil service. The courts have shredded many of his non-legislative actions. 11/
The one thing he has left is the tepid—but real—public backing of his party elite. 12/
But there is this assumption out there that this is some magical Trump spell that has been put on GOP politicians. Nonsense. 13/
Compared to any other first year president (save Andrew Johnson and John Tyler), his party backing is *atrocious.* 14/
You have to get out of the mindset that co-partisan support is ever based on “doing the right thing” or “good of the country.” It’s not. 15/
Politicians respond to electoral, policy,and power incentives, 99% of the time. 16/
Right now, those incentives are leading GOP Members to not publicly break with Trump. 17/
But that’s been true of basically every POTUS! It doesn’t mean Trump isn’t closer to losing party support than anyone ever has been. 18/
And I suspect firing Mueller (and probably Rosenstein) or pardoning preemptively would dump his approval into Bush 2008 territory. 19/
And that could easily open the floodgates. Once the incentive flips, Trump’s lack of power means an avalanche. 20/
If Trump were at 56% approval, beloved by his elite, and had repealed ACA, passed tax cuts, he might be in good spot to fire Mueller. 21/
But he isn’t, and he won’t be. It would be a move made from weakness, and it would be viewed and responded to as such. /END
Compared to any other first year president (save Andrew Johnson and John Tyler), his party backing is *atrocious.* 14/
You have to get out of the mindset that co-partisan support is ever based on “doing the right thing” or “good of the country.” It’s not. 15/
Politicians respond to electoral, policy,and power incentives, 99% of the time. 16/
Right now, those incentives are leading GOP Members to not publicly break with Trump. 17/
But that’s been true of basically every POTUS! It doesn’t mean Trump isn’t closer to losing party support than anyone ever has been. 18/
And I suspect firing Mueller (and probably Rosenstein) or pardoning preemptively would dump his approval into Bush 2008 territory. 19/
And that could easily open the floodgates. Once the incentive flips, Trump’s lack of power means an avalanche. 20/
If Trump were at 56% approval, beloved by his elite, and had repealed ACA, passed tax cuts, he might be in good spot to fire Mueller. 21/
But he isn’t, and he won’t be. It would be a move made from weakness, and it would be viewed and responded to as such. /END
