A v small thread on Italy & it’s likelihood of leaving the EU-a scenario that has excited a lot of UK chatter after yesterday election 1/
2/ many people seem to be comparing Italy with UK as if Italy would or even could be the ‘next domino” to fall. But the two nations couldn’t be more different.
3/ if you had to choose an EUcountry which could pull of leaving EU, the UK would be it. It’s international, flexible, reasonably well run public life, much industry esp services internationally orientated, its a big EU contributor & not in the EuroZone
4/ Italy is the opposite. The € alone almost rules out leaving EU by itself. For an Italian govt to even hint at leaving € wld mean that any rational person wld remove all bank money from Italian banks & deposit elsewhere in EU. There wld be a banking collapse-a bit like Greece
5/ an Italian banking collapse wld be worse than Greece tho, as Italy a modern Industrial economy. Nobody wld accept contracts, orders etc unless guaranteed in €, thus Italy leaving € wld face not only a banking collapse but trade collapse
6/ UK has argued it could leave EU to trade globally whatever you think of this, this certainly doesn’t apply to Italy. Italy’s trade is not just with EU it depends on EU to protect agriculture & industry also as Italy is not a big contributor to EU...
7/ Italy couldn’t even claim to get any money back- while unlike Brits many even eurosceptic Italians favour EU rules of mistrusted Italian institutions
8/ given all problematic chaos, lower growth etc associated with #brexit in a country which actually has some of the requirements to make if not a success then atleast not a complete disaster out of leaving EU -why then is talk of Italy -which has none- leaving EU so popular now?
9/ for non Italians the reason for wanting Italy to leave EU given what this entails can only mean one thing - desiring not just EU but € to fall. Essentially you’d be hoping for complete Italian (& presumably much of EU) financial system breakdown. Who wld want that?
10/ given that Italy does not even have trade & not services that UK has - exit from EU &€ wld likely mean economic & political breakdown & as stated financial collapse. Only those wanting a complete new Italy from the extreme right or left wld even remotely consider this, so..
11/ so back to Italians. The far right & left have always been stronger there than say in UK, but that doesn’t explain whole story, the unpleasant awkward truth is that while a majority of Italians not extreme....
12/ Italian mainstream political life has so broken down that paradoxically many Italians see no risk things cld get worse even by voting for parties which most people realize cannot carry out programs because they be a collapse. Italians want....
13/ Italians want change, but the center has collapsed & extremes are considered no worse a bet. Essentially Italy is a society with much continuity but outside of institutions. Italians remain confident socially even as institutional life broken, so to conclude a hard truth...
14/ Italy will continue to vote extreme (this election wont be a one-off) even as they know they wont leave EU in an attempt to shake Italian system until someone comes along who can & who will solve the problems that are Italian made but who the elite cannot face & so blame EU.
