Difficult to imagine any coherent foreign policy future POTUS could advance if Trump recognizes Crimean annexation. The US would, over night, become not only an utterly bad faith actor, it would become a virtual pariah state. No pledge or promise would carry weight again.
This is one of those decisions -- like sabotaging NAFTA -- that cannot simply be undone. In these situations, allies cannot trust the American political class & electorate not to simply elect a future Trump 2.0 even if the next POTUS, somehow, mends ties.
Between tearing up the Iran deal, pulling out of TPP, threatening to pull out of NAFTA, the WTO, even NATO, all while chipping away at the EU, at this rate, there's simply not going to be an architecture of "American interest" left after Trump. You can't just "undo" this.
And yet I am, most of all, aghast at the US Congress in all of this. The GOP bears the brunt of the responsibility, of course, but even the Democrats have essentially rolled over. We're just collectively, Americans, Europeans, everyone careening into unimaginable chaos.
If something as brazen as the Crimean annexation (& occupation of eastern Ukraine) by Russia can win US recognition why not also invade the Baltics? Why not Georgia (fully)? Why shouldn't Moscow's proxies in the Balkans try for the same? Why shouldn't China invade Taiwan?
So, as you give every rogue, irredentist, expansionist regime in the world license to freely pursue wars of conquest you completely abandon the entire liberal-democratic world order that the US built over decades to advance its *own* political, economic & social interests.
The US will be reduced to a virtual island state, one with a massive military, but nevertheless isolated, in every sense of the term. The rest of the world -- from Europe to East Asia -- will just be an utter melee, truly a war of each against all. This is what this invites.
And even if this turns out to be another absolutely insane rhetorical exercise it still matters because it's also chipping away at the confidence of allies & emboldening reactionaries. No one is shrugging this off, not anymore. It all seems possible & that's terrifying. /xxx
