Thread by @KyleWOrton

Michael Dempsey argues that after the pro-Asad forces roll over Deraa, Idlib is next, and then comes the east, against the U.S. partner, the #SDF/#PKK, unless the U.S. does some creative thinking and stays invested. <Some comments below> warontherocks.com/2018/07/what-d…

I am not sure that #Turkey will stand aside in Idlib. Dempsey is right that the Turks' presence is "limited" but as a military-political matter (calling it a "red line", coping with an influx of 2m refugees plus terrorists, space it gives to PKK) Ankara needs to hold its ground.

On the Asad Alliance side, yes, if Asad/Iran decide to attack #Idlib, Russia can do nothing and will join in. Even so, assuming Turkey does not fold, it's not clear the regime coalition has the capacity for this offensive. Perhaps it does, but that shouldn't be an assumption.

The final quibble with Dempsey is that his operating vision is to protect U.S. allies. Good idea.

But he means stay in east #Syria to guarantee #SDF/#PKK. And watch an utter catastrophe in Idlib that destabilises a far more important ally, #Turkey, and kills thousands.

If the idea is to protect allies: find a way to bring the two #NATO allies onto the same page to protect their areas inside #Syria, and then deal with the jihadist problem in Idlib in a manner that doesn't involve massacre and expulsion and the destabilisation of #Turkey.