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Kyle Orton @KyleWOrton
, 10 tweets, 9 min read Read on Twitter
#YPG/#PKK publicly invites the #Asad/#Iran system into the border areas, particularly Minbij, which was captured because of the efforts of the U.S., working in coordination with #Turkey, having promised that the city would be handed over to local rule after #IS was gone.
It doesn't seem that the #PKK has handed Minbij to the #Asad/#Iran system just yet, though a regime delegation visited this morning.
Worth noting here that the #SDF/#PKK opened Minbij up to Asad's secret police a long time ago, and if the Asad regime is present it means Iranian operatives are, too.…
#Russia has no reason to stand in #Turkey's way: it cannot, for a start, but it's also very helpful for the pro-Asad forces to pile as much pressure on the #PKK as possible, allows the most advantageous terms to fold the PKK back into the Asad/Iran system.
#Turkey might accept a transition in Minbij from YPG/PKK to the Asad/Iran system, perhaps presented as a deal with #Russia. But she also might not. Iran sent its Shia jihadists to support the PKK in Efrin, and the Turks vaporized them. The balance of power is with Ankara here.
The key is whether #Turkey believes the pro-Asad coalition will dismantle the #PKK. Given the history of the PKK, an asset of Asad and Moscow against Turkey, that seems like a bad bet, but at this stage who would predict anything?
A live feed of #FSA-branded, #Turkey-dependant Syrian Arab fighters moving from Jarabulus to Minbij, ostensibly in preparation for an offensive against the #SDF/#PKK-held city.
Signalling that nothing is imminent from #Turkey in Minbij, Erdogan said: "These areas belong to Syria [i.e. Asad]. Once the terrorist organizations [PKK] leave the area, we will have nothing left to do there."…
Really important dynamic: for all the #PKK's claims about its Rojava structure gaining local legitimacy, the trendline in the Arab areas is the reverse; many in Raqqa and Deir Ezzor who were prepared to give it a chance are now losing patience.
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