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Kyle Orton @KyleWOrton
, 10 tweets, 9 min read Read on Twitter
#YPG/#PKK publicly invites the #Asad/#Iran system into the border areas, particularly Minbij, which was captured because of the efforts of the U.S., working in coordination with #Turkey, having promised that the city would be handed over to local rule after #IS was gone.
It doesn't seem that the #PKK has handed Minbij to the #Asad/#Iran system just yet, though a regime delegation visited this morning.
Worth noting here that the #SDF/#PKK opened Minbij up to Asad's secret police a long time ago, and if the Asad regime is present it means Iranian operatives are, too. thedailybeast.com/us-arms-kurds-…
#Russia has no reason to stand in #Turkey's way: it cannot, for a start, but it's also very helpful for the pro-Asad forces to pile as much pressure on the #PKK as possible, allows the most advantageous terms to fold the PKK back into the Asad/Iran system.
#Turkey might accept a transition in Minbij from YPG/PKK to the Asad/Iran system, perhaps presented as a deal with #Russia. But she also might not. Iran sent its Shia jihadists to support the PKK in Efrin, and the Turks vaporized them. The balance of power is with Ankara here.
The key is whether #Turkey believes the pro-Asad coalition will dismantle the #PKK. Given the history of the PKK, an asset of Asad and Moscow against Turkey, that seems like a bad bet, but at this stage who would predict anything?
A live feed of #FSA-branded, #Turkey-dependant Syrian Arab fighters moving from Jarabulus to Minbij, ostensibly in preparation for an offensive against the #SDF/#PKK-held city.
Signalling that nothing is imminent from #Turkey in Minbij, Erdogan said: "These areas belong to Syria [i.e. Asad]. Once the terrorist organizations [PKK] leave the area, we will have nothing left to do there." reuters.com/article/us-mid…
#Thread by @Ayei_Eloheichem
Really important dynamic: for all the #PKK's claims about its Rojava structure gaining local legitimacy, the trendline in the Arab areas is the reverse; many in Raqqa and Deir Ezzor who were prepared to give it a chance are now losing patience.
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Even when getting people to the point of admitting that the U.S. is supporting the #PKK and that's a problem, there has been a tendency to then speak as if it's a political problem for U.S.-#Turkey relations, rather than PKK being of itself a problem.
The #PKK was on the other side in the Cold War. It's doctrine is anti-Western at its core: its campaign against #Turkey is framed as one where the state is illegitimate because it is the imprint of Western imperialism. The PKK has the same view of #Israel.
The PKK fled Turkey after the coup in 1980, and was nurtured under the Asad regime, acting as a cut-out for the Soviet Union. After training at the Palestinian terrorist camps in Lebanon, the PKK launched its war against Turkey, a frontline NATO state, and was harboured in Syria.
Read 4 tweets
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9 Sept:

1543: Mary, Queen of Scots, 9-months-old, crowned

1923: CHP becomes a political party

1944: Communist coup in Bulgaria

1970: "Black September" events begin, end with PLO expelled from Jordan to Lebanon, where they cause another civil war

2001: Ahmad Shah Masud killed
9 September 1976: Mao Zedong finally died.

Mao is the only rival to Stalin as the most murderous tyrant of the 20th century. Sadly the totalitarian regime he created in #China survives in somewhat modified form to the present.
9 September 1922: The Turkish forces enter Izmir, effectively defeating Greece.

The nationalist revolt against the Allied occupation was triggered by the Greek landing at Izmir in May 1919 (The Emergence of Modern Turkey, p. 241).
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A U.S. diplomat met three times with military officers in #Venezuela plotting a coup against Nicolas Maduro; he refused to give the officers even an indication of support, let alone the communications devices they needed to bring off their conspiracy. nyti.ms/2QfP2G2
Some saw #Venezuela's military as a means of stabilizing the situation, allowing practical things like aid deliveries. Others "saw considerable risk in building bridges with leaders of a military that...ha[ve] become a pillar of the cocaine trade and human rights abuses." #pt
There's nothing to complain about in the U.S. gathering intelligence by establishing communications with mutinous officers in #Venezuela. The question is whether Maduro is considered a threat: if he is, then do what's necessary to bring him down. If not, leave it for Venezuelans.
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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See if you can follow:

•For decades Turkey has labeled all Kurds in its territory and on its borders terrorists (PPK(Turkey), YPG(Syria), and Iraqi Kurds)

•Syrian civil war starts and Iraqi Kurds and YPG are strategic allies to US fighting ISIS in Iraq and ISIS/Assad in Syria
•Turkey saber rattles at Iraqi Kurds and YPG but not much else since they are important US allies ans US troops are embedded with both forces for training and logistical support.

Past few days:

• US backed Kurdish forces in Syria major victory against remnants of ISIS.
• Turkey announces major offensive against Kurdish PKK in their territory (previously threatening the same to YPG)

• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan/Trump have phone call

• Trump withdraws US from Syria without even consulting Pentagon or Secretaries of relevant depts
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1)
 While the title seems very bold against the U.S. & in favor of #Iran's regime, taking a deeper look sheds interesting light.

The "special purpose vehicle" is nothing but a "paper tiger"...
ft.com/content/e75b91…
2)
 "But the EU, which along with China and Russia remains committed to the nuclear deal, is struggling with the limited tools at its disposal to fight the sanctions and facilitate continued trade with the Islamic republic."

#IranSanctions
3)
 "Like almost all other EU states, France has so far received no exemptions for doing business with Iran. Leading French companies, including Peugeot parent PSA and oil group Total, have already announced plans to curb their Iran activities."

#IranSanctions
Read 19 tweets
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It’s extraordinary just how much BS gets created in people’s minds.

I never once expressed “support” for #Turkey’s #Afrin operation.

- Did I say it was inevitable? Yes.
- Did I observe it & comment on its advance vis-a-vis broader #Syria dynamics (i.e. my job)? Yes.
My critique has always been about the imbalance/s created in northern #Syria by U.S. counter-#ISIS policy.

The #YPG was/is the #PKK - all U.S. officials admit that in private. That didn’t necessarily have to preclude working with them, but ignoring it caused big, big problems.
#pt: As an analyst of terrorist groups, I did see a certain irony & short-sightedness in the words of one top, serving U.S. official, “allying with a terrorist group (#PKK) to fight another terrorist group (#ISIS).”

It’s got nothing to do with any position on #Kurds, whatsoever.
Read 7 tweets
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The logic driving this “humanitarian” narrative is riddled with inaccuracies & contradiction.

1. @MaxBoot says we should “let #Assad win,” but that at the same time, the U.S. should “stand with” the #SDF in 25% of #Syria (the northeast) -- how does that work, exactly?
2. The author also says U.S should “cut a deal” w. #Erdogan, in which “the #YPG will sever all support for the #PKK” … [despite the vast majority of #PYD/YPG leadership being long-time PKK/KCK veterans.]

Speak to anyone who regularly visits #SDF in NE - PKK calls the shots.
3. The author also links recent pictures of #Aleppo’s public park to compare “2016 charnel house” to 2018 "civilians strolling through its rebuilt public park.”

Except the park sat in regime-held territory & was barely touched in 4yrs of war. How does conquered east Aleppo look?
Read 7 tweets

Trending hashtags

#YPG #EU #Afrin #Iraqi #Yazidi #Iraq #Jisr #FBI #Reuter #Kurd #Jalamah #SaudiArabia #Saddam #RightTime #WMD #NYTimes #KSA #Kilis #KhashoggiCase #Israel #Turkey #UNGA #EthnicCleansing #Iran #Oil

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