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Peter Ungphakorn @CoppetainPU
, 4 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
I've updated this explainer on the UK's and EU's tariff quotas in the WTO to include events this month (October).

(Adding that makes it longer but near the top is a contents list with links to jump to each subheading.)

What's new?

1/4
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/hap…
The timeline has been expanded. It's important because it shows what happened this month was largely expected.

Note Greg Hands had already told Parliament in June that negotiations were on the cards.

2/4
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/hap… Screenshot of
This is what happened in October. A lot of the media were caught by surprise because they had not followed what happened before, and were unaware of WTO procedures.

3/4
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/hap… Screenshot 1 of section on “What happened in October 2018”Screenshot 2 of section on “What happened in October 2018”
And this is what we know about the Russian intervention

4/4
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/hap… Screenshot 3 of section on “What happened in October 2018” specifically on Russia, to the end of the piece
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More from @CoppetainPU see all

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Some Brexiters (by no means all) apparently see “no deal” increasingly as a “viable” option, particularly no deal on March 29.

Those who argue in favour, need to address in detail the weight of evidence that it would be seriously harmful for many.

huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/increasi…

1/17
Remember:

1. Arguing against “no deal” is not arguing against Brexit. (It’s sad that this has to be repeated.)

2. “No deal” on March 29, is far worse than a gradual transition to “no deal” over a number of years. And it can’t be a “managed no deal” unless there’s a deal.

2/17
3. Even “no deal” on March 29 won’t mean the end of the world (a phrase used repeatedly), but for many it could mean the end of their present livelihoods.

If it’s a “viable” option, define “viable”.

And for whom?

3/17
Read 20 tweets
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The "transitional arrangement" @bbaschuk refers to is, for now, the proposed Withdrawal Agreement (WA). It has provisions (129.1) specifically dealing with issues such as the WTO's Government Procurement Agreement (GPA)

What needs to be sorted out?

1/10

gov.uk/government/pub…
With the WA, the time to sort out the GPA is extended under the WA's transition period. Without the WA and no consensus in the WTO's Government Procurement Committee (the GPA signatories), UK preferential access is lost.

2/10

Source (paywalled): ….agribusinessintelligence.informa.com/PL218600/New-s… Screenshot of paragraphs in the linked paywalled article quoting a WTO news story in which the UK and EU say the UK will be treated as an EU member until the end of the transition, and Article 129.1 plus footnote of the draft Withdrawal Agreement
The problem isn't the UK's offer (already accepted in principle) but legalese & procedure in the committee's draft decision

@bbaschuk shared a leaked US amendment to the EU's draft committee decision.

It is revealing. This first part is unamended.

3/10

drive.google.com/file/d/1pW-3P0… Screenshot of the top of page 2 of the US proposed draft decision, down to
Read 10 tweets
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This is nonsense.

No one does deals to "escape" the WTO. They remain WTO members, bound by the agreements they made in the WTO.

They get some better terms through free trade deals, but the WTO agreements remain the shell. Those free trade agreements reside within the WTO shell
One of the needs of Brexit (whatever the outcome) is to understand the implications for trade, including the WTO and its agreements.

It doesn't help if influential people like @mikegalsworthy & @Scientists4EU can't be bothered to find out what the WTO really is.

Pointers

1/3
Here's somewhere to start: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2017/12/17/wto…

2/3
Read 4 tweets

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Any other #EU / #US / @NATO / @UN leaders awake?

@FedericaMog @GermanyDiplo @francediplo_EN @foreignoffice @statedeptspox @NATOpress @UN_Spokesperson

#KerchStrait #Ukraine #Russia #PutinAtWar
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STATEMENT #EU:

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1/ The #Saudi kidnapping of #Khashoggi reminds me of the kidnapping of #Hariri. It is meant to embarrass the other party, this time the gov of #Turkey, and provoke a diplomatic crisis. This is drug Cartel methods. It has no other goal than to assert power over the other.
2/ However, resorting to these methods to assert power in the political and international affairs sphere is always a sign of weakness and a sign of a power in crisis. #SaudiArabia
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
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This BrexitCentral article is an abridged version of an article posted by the same author on Lawyers for Britain. It's full of factual errors, but I don't have the time to go into them all.

Here's the original article by @lawyers4britain

lawyersforbritain.org/leaving-the-eu…
The wording of this paragraph has changed but it#s still wrong. The "maximum level of tariffs" are the bound tariffs. On July 24 the UK submitted it's MFN tariff schedule to the WTO, That's the rate that will be charged under the MFN principle.
Read 5 tweets
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Michel Barnier interview extras - a few extras, a few thoughts - thread.
The most significant thing was MB ruling out David Davis’ vision of Canada +++, Theresa May’s “deep and special” bespoke deal. In the Brussels shop of models, countries can pick from what is on the shelf, not order custom-made.
MB wants agreements with UK on security and defence, judicial cooperation and aviation - he gave these as three examples of ‘pluses’. None are about economics, the bedrock of 1957 treaty.
Read 21 tweets
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Lets be CLEAR here
There is NO ceasefire
#Saudi #UAE #UK #US #HRW #EU #UN #UNSC #Yemen #YemenCrisis

Here is why👇👇
Here is some of #Saudi #UAE led CO violation of the ceasefire on 15/DEC/2015 1st pic.
#Yemen #UK #HRW #EU #UN
👇👇👇👇
#Saudi #UAE violations of the ceasefire on the second day 16/12/2015 in #Yemen #YemenCrisis
#UN #UNSC #HRW
#UK #US
Read 27 tweets

Trending hashtags

#UN #terrorism #beef #economists #tariffs #Juncker #Hariri #Saudis #China #Macron #ProjectFear #UK #PAM #law #pay #EU #report #zones #alcohol #Oil #Tunisia #MBS #SAA #SIGINT #manufacturers

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