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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
A short Kansas election 🧵 before bed. Image
Sharice Davids winning by double digits, again, after Republicans tried gerrymandering #KS03 is a sign of just how bad things are getting for Republicans in the state's most populous County. And a sign that Amanda Adkins is a truly terrible candidate.
JoCo Dems also picked up 3 state House seats in the county, and lost 3 more by such small margins (<250 votes) that if they don't flip thanks to late-arriving mail ballots, are probably likely to flip in 2024.

Fun fact: JoCo has added ~25K registered Dems since Nov. 2020.
Read 14 tweets
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
Read 38 tweets
KANSAS: Republicans hold a 3-1 lead in the delegation, but there's serious talk they could draw a 4-0 gerrymander by converting Rep. Sharice Davids (D)'s #KS03 from a double-digit Biden district (left) to a double-district Trump district (right).
However, Kansas Rs face some obstacles to doing so:

1) They'd have to override Gov. Laura Kelly (D)'s veto. That might not be easy given they can't afford many defections and in 2011, when Rs controlled it all, they couldn't even agree on a map and it went to federal court
2) To make #KS03 bright red, Rs would have to split up Wyandotte & Johnson counties. That could mean putting urban Wyandotte (Kansas City) in the rural "Big First" #KS01, an idea that's met huge resistance from KS civic leaders in the past
Read 5 tweets
Every state had big stakes on the ballot. I previewed them before Nov. 3 — and now we know enough to revisit it all.

Here's a new thread on each & every state, and DC & Puerto Rico too. Idea is to encapsulate as much of what went down as I can within 280 characters. Let's go!
As a first step: Here's the pre-election thread if you want to explore it.

Of course, most of the information here is available on my…!

And a series of December/January runoffs, of course, still loom large. The cycle is not over!

1️⃣ Oregon:
—became the first state to decriminalize drug possession
—legalized psilocybin
—Dems flipped the Secretary of State office
—Portland/Mulntomah adopted preschool for all
—Portland's mayor beat left challenge
—Rep. DeFazio re-elected in tighter than usual race
Read 44 tweets
Every state has big stakes on the ballot — it's just some are facing a perfect storm where so much that matters is competitive at once.

So I'm starting this ongoing thread of states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can within 280 characters. (Let's do roughly one a day!)
1️⃣ North Carolina really is it:

—Could decide WH
—Could decide U.S. Senate majority
—Ds may gain at least 2 House seats. More?
—Can Ds keep governorship (& veto power)?
—Can Ds pick-up a legislative chamber?
—3 Supreme Court seats!👀
—AG, LG (if Gov vacancy...), SoS competitive
2️⃣ Montana is up there too:
—Could decide Senate majority!
—Open Gov race. Would be GOP's first win since 2000, likely give them trifecta. And it's Gianforte on the ballot.
—Open SoS & AG races
—An open, tight House race
—An intriguing Supreme Court race
—Gun control referendum
Read 40 tweets
House Ethics Cmte began investigation today into 1st term #KS02 GOP Rep. Steve Watkins following criminal charges being filed against him in Shawnee County District Court in Kansas July 14th. Panel will be chaired by Rep. Brown (D-MD) with Rep, Olson (R-TX) as Ranking Member.
Panel will determine if Watkins "falsely reported info to law enforcement officer,voted in election district w/o being lawfully registered to vote,knowingly marked or transmitted more than 1 advance voting ballot,&/or failed to notify proper agency of change of name or address."
House Ethics Cmte per House rules had within 30 days of Watkins being formally charged with criminal conduct on July 14th to establish a subcommittee to investigate him or not.They unanimously voted to investigate him for possible violations of House…
Read 5 tweets
1st term #KS02 Republican Rep. Steve Watkins lost his primary election to KS Treasurer Jake LaTurner per AP. Turner will face Democratic primary winner Topeka Mayor Michelle De La Isla in the fall.Republicans have held this House seat which includes Topeka & Lawrence since 2009.
Rep. Steve Watkins (R-KS) is the 6th Congressman to lose his party's nomination this year joining fellow Republicans Steve King (IA), Denver Riggleman (VA) and Scott Tipton (CO) as well as Democrats Dan Lipinski (IL) and Eliot Engel (D-NY).
NRCC Chair Emmer on #KS02 House race:"Congratulations to Jake LaTurner on his victory.Jake’s vision of conservative leadership will provide a clear contrast with Michelle De La Isla’s brand of socialism & I have no doubt he will keep this seat in Republican hands come November.”
Read 3 tweets
House and Senate primaries are being held in 5 states today including in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington.
Arizona GOP Appointed-Senator Martha McSally faces primary challenger Daniel McCarthy today. Winner will likely face Democrat Mark Kelly in the fall election to serve out remainder of the late John McCain’s term until 2022. #AZSEN
In #AZ01, 2nd term Democratic Rep. Tom O’Halleran faces primary challenger former Flagstaff city councilwoman Eva Putzova.Republicans in the district will also elect nominee for the fall election today.O'Halleran won 2018 election to Flagstaff area House seat w/53.8% of the vote.
Read 16 tweets
New at @CookPolitical: House rating changes in 20 districts, all towards Democrats. I can’t recall the last time we moved so many races at once, let alone in the same direction.
More @CookPolitical: for the first time this cycle, Democrats have at least as good a chance of picking up House seats as Republicans on a net basis.…
(Here’s a graphic corrected for #WA03)
Read 8 tweets
U.S. Rep. Steve Watkins faces allegations of voter fraud and perjury after listing UPS store in Topeka as home residence on voter registration. He actually lives in Overbrook but cast ballot in last month's Topeka elections #ksleg #ks02 via @TimVCarpenter…
Jim Joice, Watkins’ chief of staff, said the representative mistakenly portrayed his residence to be the UPS building: “He just filed it incorrectly. I think that’s a little ludicrous.” #ksleg #ks02…
State Rep. Blake Carpenter, a conservative Republican on the House Elections Committee: “This person undoubtedly voted in an election in November for candidates that he had no constitutional right to vote for ..." #ksleg #ks02…
Read 7 tweets
🚨MY MASTER THREAD of #Midterm2018 results analysis, including an array of data dives. Will the country chose to repudiate president Trump? Health care instead of the wall? RT & strap in, folks, tonight could be a wild ride. We get the first batch of results at around 6 PM ET.
Turnout has looked unprecedented for weeks now. Indications today that it could even beat these lofty expectations. At this point I think I’d buy for pickups in Tossup sub/urban seats like #TX07 #TX32 and #TX26, but sell in more rural districts that have looked like reaches.
Read 82 tweets
Why the slight shift? Let me try to explain what we've observed move post-Labor Day. There are basically 3 large buckets of House races we're watching...
1) Vulnerable Rs in upscale, suburban, Clinton-won "Whole Foods" districts like #VA10 Comstock, #KS03 Yoder, #CO06 Coffman, #MN03 Paulsen, #CA45 Walters, #NJ07 Lance, etc. These Rs are mostly trailing & their numbers haven't gotten any better recently.
2) Competitive races in redder, working-class districts that Trump won by double digits in '16, such as #IL12 Bost, #MN08 OPEN, #NY22 Tenney, #WV03 OPEN, etc. Overall, things have slightly improved in "Trump zones" for Rs, w/ notable exceptions in districts like #KS02 & #ME02.
Read 5 tweets
I'm at Holiday Inn in North Topeka where a small gathering is waiting for Steve Bannon to stump for Watkins. Organizer says he's en route from Topeka airport #ksleg #ks02
There's a screen set up, so some are wondering if he's just appearing by video. About a dozen people here. #ksleg #ks02
Watkins campaign just called to make it clear they have nothing to do with this rally. There are Watkins signs up in the rally room #ksleg #ks02
Read 27 tweets

As Green Day once sang: “Do You Know Your Enemy?”

If not, we need to have a talk about the Congressional Leadership Fund (@CLFSuperPac).

THEY ARE THE ENEMY of the 2018 Midterm Elections and they WILL cost us seats IF we let them.
The CLF is a right-wing SuperPAC spearheaded by Paul Ryan. It’s goal is to lie about and smear as many Democratic candidates as possible.

They have raised more than $100Million from billionaires looking to keep the GOP in power.…
Back in May, Paul Ryan personally solicited billionaire Sheldon Adelson for $30Million for the CLF. He made the pitch and then walked out of the room so that someone else could make the actual “ask”, in order to avoid campaign finance violations.…
Read 17 tweets
Here's your Democratic Candidates for #Midterms2018!
THREAD of all Dem Candidates for Congress, Governor, SoS & AG
with photos, Twitter & Websites.
AND Voter Info links to Registration, Absentee, ID, Poll Worker
#KS01 #KS02 #KS03 #KS04
#VoteBlue #VoteBlueKS
Check Registration:…
Register online, by mail, fax, or in person at #KS county election offices or local KS DMV office.
Register to vote online (valid ID):…
Printable application:…
Democratic Candidate for Kansas #KS01
District 1

Alan LaPolice
Ex-Public School Dist. Supt., Teacher, Gulf War Veteran

vs GOP Incumbent Roger "Doc" Marshall (R)

Read 13 tweets
You need to register by JULY 17th
to be able to VOTE in your AUGUST 7th #PrimaryElection!

Below is a THREAD of all Democratic Candidates for Congress, Governor, Sos & AG & Voter Info with links.
This link includes State Candidates…

Check Registration:…
Register online, by mail, fax, or in person at #KS county election offices or local KS DMV office.
Register to vote online (valid ID):…
Printable application:…
Any registered Kansas voter may apply for an absentee ballot & vote by mail with current KS driver’s license number. Apply by Friday before election. Return by 7pm on Election Day
You can find a list of acceptable forms of ID at
Read 13 tweets

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