Thread by @MichaelENewton1

#Earlyvoting update:
The #Republican share of the votes cast so far is +1.3% against the “final” 2016 results and +0.7% against the corresponding date in 2016. In contrast, the #Democrat share is -0.2% in the “final” data and +0.2% in the “daily.”
#MAGA #Election2018

In total, the Rep-Dem margin in #earlyvoting vs 2016 is R+1.5% in the “final” data set and R+0.5% from 2016 in the “daily” data set. In other words, the GOP is doing about 243k early votes better in these 13 states than they did in 2016.
#MAGA #Election2018

#Republicans have lifted their share of the vote from 2016 in 9 or the 13 states. #Democrats have done so in just 7 of the 13. Net, the distribution of votes have moved in the #GOP’s favor in 8 states; to the #Dems in 5.
#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018

In total, a small move towards the Dems since yesterday evening. A D+0.17% move vs 2016’s final result and D+0.10% against corresponding date in 2016.
Over last 24 hours, results moved 0.12% in favor of Dems in “final” data and 0.33% in “daily.”
#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018

Trend of ~0.2% per day toward the Dems that I predicted appears to be slowing, now at ~0.1%, as some states finish #earlyvoting.
With ~87% of expected early votes already cast and some states finished early voting, changes in future will be smaller.
#MAGA #Election2018

The slow trend toward Dems in late early voting continues. At R+1.5% with a few days left, it looks like “final” result may end between R+1.0% and R+1.5%. My best guess is now R+1.2%.
#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018

The #GOP ending #earlyvoting ~1.2% better than they did in 2016 would be remarkable. 2016 was a good year for #Republicans. There is no sign of the supposed #bluewave and perhaps a small #redwave might be coming next Tuesday.
#MAGA #Election2018

16 million people have already cast their ballots in #earlyvoting in just these 13 states alone. This represents about 44% of the projected numbers of votes to be cast in these states and about 15% of the total projected to be cast this election.
#MAGA #Election2018

As you can see in the table tweeted above, CA and NV had big moves towards the Dems while FL and LA has smaller moves in the same directions. NC had a big move towards the Republicans while WV had a smaller move.
#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018