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Alberto Nardelli @AlbertoNardelli
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
A small Brexit update: I understand 20XX is now 2022 at the latest. (This refers to the possible extended transition period if there is no trade deal by July 2020. It would be a one-off extension for a jointly agreed maximum period of time. ie not beyond end 2022).
I am told that most member states agree with 2022 as a maximum end date. At a meeting of EU27 ambassadors this morning, a number of diplomats/member states asked for an ambitious preamble to the political declaration on the future UK-EU relationship
In terms of next steps, these are unchanged:

- EU ministers meeting tomorrow
- Tuesday: texts
- Thursday: Sherpas
- Sunday: EUCO
Finally, on the future relationship text, the crux of the matter, in line with EU27 guidelines, is to balance ambition with clarity that the relationship with a non-EU country is inferior to EU membership
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More from @AlbertoNardelli see all

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Brexit. Things are getting worse.

1. The withdrawal agreement is needed regardless of the shape of the future relationship. The withdrawal agreement on the table, including the backstop, will not be renegotiated. EU27 cannot be clearer on this point – and this is the key point.
2. Throughout these negotiations, so many problems have been created by N10’s inability & unwillingness to set realistic expectations, explain tradeoffs and communicate clearly. As the PM runs out of road, the confusion over the withdrawal agreement is the latest example
3. The political declaration allows for a full spectrum of future options, but it is not clear what kind of relationship the UK wants. This will require a proper debate on tradeoffs (and years of negotiation). However, whatever that option: you need the withdrawal agreement
Read 7 tweets
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About last night:

1) May went to the meeting seeking legally-binded assurances with half-baked proposals to placate hard Brexiteers & DUP

These have been rejected repeatedly for obvious reasons. Backstop is an insurance policy not “a trap.” Not EU27 problem many MPs ignore this
2) May was asked by several leaders, and, I am told, most emphatically by Chancellor Merkel: 'what is it that you want?'

The prime minister was unable to provide an answer to this question with any precision.
That is where May is at in a nutshell: Nearly two years after triggering article 50, the UK does not have an answer to the question, "what do you want?"

There are also concerns that the UK – across the political spectrum – has no idea what kind of future relationship it wants.
Read 7 tweets
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EUCO draft Brexit conclusions: I understand that paragraph 5 (EU stands ready to examine whether any further assurances can be provided..) has gone.
Par. 1, which wasn't in square brackets, is of course unchanged: "The Union stands by this agreement and intends to proceed with its ratification. It is not open for renegotiation."
Par 2 unchanged: EU reiterates wish for 'as close as possible partnership.." 'stands ready to embark on prep immediately after signature of WA to ensure negotiations can start asap after withdrawal'. Understand 27 discussed starting prep work on future deal as soon as UK ratifies
Read 12 tweets

Related threads

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1) "No Deal" is the "Access to the Single Market" of the #Brexit endgame

Can't believe this isn't being widely reported but "No Deal" is the greatest bait & switch since, well, the last 1

No Deal brexiters *do not believe* in no deal, at all, its an illusion, and not a good one
2) Davis talks on Question Time of the better deal we'll get from a no deal.

Dorres talks confidently of the transition period following "no deal"

Leadsom outlines managed no deal, which involves deals

Mogg talks of "side deals" with the EU

What's missing? An actual "no deal"
3) in every case brexiters pay lip service to "walking away" and then proceed to talk about actions which *all involve negotiating with the EU*

None of them believe in no deal, they just believe blackmail will work, when it has singly failed to so far, with disastrous results
Read 12 tweets
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1) Options available on #Brexit - thread
To try to help out with understanding I'm going to go for the simplest explanation I can of the options in front of the country re A50, Deals available etc based on my understanding

Here goes
2) briefly to begin with, there are 3 #Brexit options & 2 Article 50 options
Brexit options:
- No deal
- May's deal
- Remain

Article 50
- Revoke A50
- Delay A50

3 routes to Remain
- GE with a Labour Remain ticket
- 2nd Ref with a Remain option
- Revoke A50 via vote in HoP
3) Revoke A50
can be revoked by the UK alone, without agreement of the EU & we go back to the *exact* same deal we have now (rebate, no Euro etc)

However it must be a revoke in "good faith", we revoke because we are staying indefinitely, not as a pause whilst we have a rethink
Read 22 tweets
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So @DominicRaab and Brexiteers think a defeat for @theresa_may
on Dec 11 will allow the UK to renegotiate the Irish backstop, specifically the right to leave unilaterally.

Here's why, after chats with both sides, that ain't happening IMO. 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may First Raab thinks a PM that shows some "will and resolve" can get the EU to change its mind.

But his own experience must tell him different. Remember his own failed tilt at @simoncoveney demanding three-month exit clause? Fail. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may @simoncoveney But even allowing for disingenuousness, there are 3 reasons why the EU is not bluffing when it says it won't renegotiate the backstop to give the UK a unilateral walkout clause.

1. They actually want to avoid a hard border
2. Political solidarity
3. They don't buy UK bluff /3
Read 20 tweets
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#BrexitChaos - thread: need for definitions:

#NoDeal #nodealbrexit means crashing out: no arrangements with the #EU or other member states, no transition period. Means losing all existing trade deals & years of global negociations
#WTO ≠ trade deal (look it up!) 1/9
@theresa_may #WithdrawalAgreement is the framework for a future #UK #EU future relationship. Allows for an orderly #Brexit with transition period, but leaves many issues to resolve, trade deals and regulations to negotiate, which will take many years and be costly. No "dividend"!
It is possible to #StopBrexit and #Remain. This means staying in the #EU with all current benefits, reciprocal rights and protections, free trade and movement for goods, services and people within the EU. To do this, Govt must #RevokeA50 (Article 50=notice given to #Leave 3/9
Read 10 tweets
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1) Again and again I’m struck by the chasm in thinking between leading MP’s on #Brexit and the viewpoint of EU leaders - and remember, if you want a deal, it takes two to tango
2) There is ZERO appetite or intention in EU circles to renegotiate this withdrawal deal
3) The EU would love the U.K. to remain a member of the club but if we’re leaving - then this is the divorce deal
Read 14 tweets
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"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Brexit #Parliament #PeoplesVote #9b #RevokeA50 #Fbpe #TuftonStreet #RemainerNow #WithdrawalAgreement #CPC18 #3a #StopBrexit #transition #3b #DExEU #WTO #GE2017 #GDPR #Kochtopus #FinalSay #NoDeal #Remain #BrexitChaos #BrexitDK #Referendum2018

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