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Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai
, 4 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Syrian proxies (Euphrates Shield and co.) will return to #Idllib to fight among themselves, desperate that even #Turkey gave up on them & their "dream to have oil, gas & resources in an annexed 43000 sq km area" is vanished

Many IDP in #Idlib will find their way back to gov area
The #Kurds #SDF will have to drop their title because there is no more need for it, like the Turkish-proxies "Euphrates shield".

#YPG were disregarded by #USA
Jihadists and rebels will soon feel the same, disregarded by #Turkey
#ISIS will be attacked (no more IUS protection)
It will take several months for the #Syrian army and its allies to re-organise themselves and regain the area occupied by the #USA after their withdrawal.

That would take us to the Spring-Summer time to knock at the doors of #Idlib
The US forces are expected to speed up their "organised withdrawal" and coordinate with #Russia to make sure no Russian allies would attack the US forces while pulling out towards #Iraq (I don't expect these forces to stay for very long in Iraq).).
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Related hashtags

#Idllib #Turkey #Idlib #Kurds #SDF #YPG #USA #ISIS #Syrian #Russia #Iraq

More from @ejmalrai see all

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Ex-Nusra (#AQ rebranded HTS) walked into its own death by taking a large territory in #Idlib and its surrounding. The defeat of large groups like Ahrar and Souqourv al-Sham (who showed little resistance) and the elimination of Zinki group will have deadly consequences on AQ.+
No doubt #Turkey asked Ahrar et al to stand down & avoid fighting (for now). It means #Ankara would be happy to see the end of its presence in #Idlib on the long term. For this, Erdogan needs to see a very large battle taking place first in the north between these groups and #AQ
Erdogan & Putin will have a meeting soon to discuss the #Kurds and #AQ in #Idlib. I expect hot spring in Idlib and a large offensive against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Abu Mohammad al Joulani's ambition (from ex-ISIS emir to AQ Emir to ruler of Idlib) is helping to end this phenomena.
Read 6 tweets
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I can only see positiveness in the expansion of al-Qaeda in #Syria. The more cities and villages it controls, the faster it will lose.

#AQ in Syria is trying to earn the heart and minds of the locals but it is trying to full up their pockets. This group has learned nothing.
Today I am very confident & much more positive that #Turkey will not occupy north of #Syria and will not stay in the territory it occupies today for ever.

@RT_Erdogan is confirming his strategic relationship with #Russia & #Iran is more precious than #USA
#AQ was planning long ago to expand its control. #Turkey rejected Joulani's wishes for very long. By accepting or closing an eye on the ex-#ISIS Emir, i.e. Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, #Turkey has found the best way to liberate itself from al-Qaeda's burden.
Read 4 tweets
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Hay'yan, Anadan & Haritan under Jihadists of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham Led by Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, the ex #ISIS officer, the ex-al Qaeda in the Levant and the actual leader of a large number of foreign fighters.

Joulani is taking position opposite #SAA.

google.com/maps/place/Hra…
Rural and the city of #Idlib, the rural area of #idlib, #Aleppo & #Hama are under Jihadists control. Is it time for the Syrian army, supported by #Russia to stop the jihadists advance if #Turkey is incapable of doing the job it has promised at #Astana?

#Turkey is embarrassed by Jihadists overwhelming control of most of the #Astana area of control. Joulani is forcing his place on #Ankara unless the Turkish army moves in to defeat him, or to steps aside and allows the #Syrian army to do the job.
Read 6 tweets

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Sources in Idlib are telling me fighting between Hayat Tahrir al-Sham jihadists vs. the National Liberation Front (NLF) + Turkish-backed FSA is about to escalate. Until now, most NLF & FSA did not join the fight.
Heavy fighting between HTS jihadists and National Liberation Front (Islamists) + Turkish-backed FSA. The sides are using artillery around Atmeh and Dir Balout IDP camps. Injuries & 1 death of civilians reported. Clashes ongoing in western Aleppo countryside as well.
Clashes ongoing in Idlib as well. The National Liberation Front took over several villages in Idlib while Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is gaining ground in western Aleppo. Multiple roads are closed in Idlib and Aleppo due to heavy clashes.
Read 28 tweets
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What You're Not Being Told
#Kurds are not indigenous to Raqqa nor DeirEzzor, in Syria
Since 2015 thousands of Sunni Arabs were driven out by US backed YPG Kurds’ ethnic cleansing
Kurdish geography:
#Turkey 22.5 m
#Iran 6 m
#Iraq 5/6 m
#Syria less than 2 m
kurdishcommunitycenter.org/about-kurdista…
Before greed made #Kurds stab fellow #Syrians in the back & join the #US' take over #Syria's oil fields
Aug, 2012
#Syria's Kurds Against #FreeSyrianArmy Terrorists, Enjoy #Assad's Freedom & Prosperty in their new semi-autonomous region setup by Pres. Assad
#EthnicCleansing is exactly what the #US Coalition have done in #Raqqa, they bombed the place like #Desden‼️
The Kurds are not indigenous to #Raqqa nor #DeirEzzor, in #Syria.
Geo-Information retrieved from #Kurdish Cultural Center Of America👇😡Source:kurdishcommunitycenter.org/about-kurdista… 👈
Read 30 tweets
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#Khashoggi Case Thread: I am going to ‘pin’ this post to use it as an ‘Info Thread’ on the #Khashoggi Case. I am in #Turkey. I’ve been following the case closely and with access to sources & experts here. This is a very ‘sensitive’ criminal case due to ‘Diplomatic Booby Traps’!!!
The Evidence Obtained Outside Cameras will not show any evidence of ‘tempering’ but other than license plates of dozens of diplomatic cars (Many with tinted windows-large trunks) with related time stamp, drivers Info, model/year: Nothing.
#Turkish Intel-Investigative Bodies also have the list of all Diplomatic & Private Saudi & “other significant’ Planes in #Turkey for the period of ‘interest.’ Many of the Target airports have their own security cameras & related evidence.
Read 335 tweets
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President Erdogan threatened in an op-ed in the @nytimes that #Turkey "has alternatives" to its alliance with the US. He's wrong, but we should be very alarmed. Here's a brief primer on the history of the US-Turkey alliance, warts and all, and what's at stake. 1/24
The US-Turkey alliance is rooted in the Truman Doctrine backed by significant US military and development assistance in the late 1940s-1950s designed to keep Turkey out of the Soviet sphere, and enshrined by Turkey joining NATO in 1952 alongside Greece. 2/24
Put crudely, Turkey joined up with the US and NATO because of the centuries-old threat posed by the Russian (then Soviet) military and the need to keep economic and military parity with rival Greece. It wasn't out of admiration or shared values. 3/24
Read 26 tweets
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🇨🇳Chinese officials are launching a new offensive to support growth:

1/ #China Says Regulators Will Work to Unclog Monetary Transmission - Bloomberg
*Official Link (Chinese): bit.ly/2ADxRKE
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/ #China's NDRC issues draft rules opening access to #oil, #gas infrastructure - Reuters
- China will encourage, support private investment in oil, gas pipelines infrastructure.
*Official Link (Chinese): bit.ly/2LYl6Pi
uk.reuters.com/article/uk-chi…
3/ #China should encourage overseas companies to list A-shares and bring in more foreign investors, according to a front-page commentary in the China Securities Journal.
*Link (Chinese): bit.ly/2vAu3UG
Read 11 tweets
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NEW - #Ahrar al-Sham & Nour al-Din al-Zinki have merged, creating Jabhat Tahrir Souriya, branded with “green” revolutionary flag.

- Ahrar leader Hassan Soufan = leader
- #Zinki leader Tawfiq Shahbuddin = deputy

“JTS” calls on other groups to join for greater unity.
#pt: What does “JTS’s” formation mean?

- Unlikely to be a full merger, but closer Ahrar-Zinki coordinating ties have been clear for months.

- Northern #Syria’s two biggest non-#HTS factions are compiling (with Syrian Islamic Council backing) pressure on #Jolani & HTS.
I’m told that x4 sub-factions of #HTS have agreed to join the newly formed Jabhat Tahrir Souriya (#JTS) and at least x5 others are negotiating possible terms.

#Syria #Idlib
Read 67 tweets

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