Thread by @tanvi_madan

Fmr Indian FonSec Jaishankar @raisinadialogue: for yrs we saw China pushing. Over last yr, we've seen US fighting back. Whether it wld, was unclear a year ago. It's clearer now, but we still don't know how serious, sustainable it is yet

Fmr Indian FonSec @DrSJaishankar at @raisinadialogue: In the US, on China my sense is that the "deep state" and the "loud state" are united.

Fmr Italian PM Gentiloni: Growing awareness in Europe of necessity of having common stand on China - we recognize that in econ rels, it's not just an opportunity. But worried abt unpredictable escalation btwn US and China. @raisinadialogue

Fmr Italian PM Gentiloni: Last yr we wondered - Will geopolitical unpredictability affect economic growth? Answer is (partially) yes. @raisinadialogue

Gen. Petraeus: China approach is not just coming from Trump. Bipartisan view that's been bldg over time. Had been hope that, over time, China wld become more open, transparent - that has not come to bear. Now, bipartisan resolve that something has to be done. @raisinadialogue

Gen. Petraeus: issue of China - defining issue of our age. Countries like India have to decide. e.g. whether they want to be inside the Great Firewell or not
@raisinadialogue

On US-China, @samirsaran: Can India take a stand and choose a side?

@DrSJaishankar: India should take a stand and should take a side - our side.

@raisinadialogue

.@DrSJaishankar: On many China trade concerns, mkt access, connectivity issues, we have shared view w US. But, on others, like what US is doing w WTO, we hv differences. It's not perfect, but part of problem w US today is inability to distinguish between baby and the bath water

Petraeus: Pence speech re China & other admin stmts - almost a declaration of a new Cold War

Fmr Italian PM Gentiloni: Europe shld be against a new Cold War dynamic. We have a lot to lose.

@raisinadialogue

.@DrSJaishankar: US-China friction is dominant characteristic of our age.
But not one answer for India that fits all problems. Will be areas where it'll be smart for India to duck choices.

@raisinadialogue

.@DrSJaishankar: Cold War involved pol, econ, mil choices. Big issues ahead going to be tech, global supply chain. Given this reality, we hv to think if US-China dynamic allows India to get better equilibrium and/or leverage w both.

@raisinadialogue

.@DrSJaishankar: India will have to navigate US-China situation. Nuanced hedging strategies have to be handled careful - you can end up scoring w everybody, or getting on wrong side w everybody

@raisinadialogue

Petraeus: disagree w @samirsaran that Russia is the greatest disruptor. It is China's rise that is the greatest disruption - they might not hv wanted to be disruptor, but their sheer rise is leading them to be
@raisinadialogue

.@DrSJaishankar: one thing abt US policy that baffles me is the obsession w Russia. It's emotional response. Odd for a country that keeps telling India to be more pragmatic, less emotional abt some countries.

@raisinadialogue

.@DrSJaishankar: 2019 is going to be an even bumpier year than 2018.

@raisinadialogue

.@DrSJaishankar: 2019 will be bumpier cuz of US-China friction. Ch not going 2 give up on model that has worked for it. US & Eur feel core interests under pressure. So elements of irreconcilability. Will be truces. But friction will remain; not sure it is good 4 world but reality

Petraeus: big question for US in 2019 will be whether we can have a coherent foreign policy strategy, esp on issue of how to deal w/ China.

@raisinadialogue

Australian ForMin @MarisePayne at @raisinadialogue: Australia & India are free, open & *independent* democracies...We are firm believers that might is not right.

Australian ForMin @MarisePayne at @raisinadialogue emphasizing Indian Ocean's importance for the country: we have offshore territories that are closer to New Delhi than to Canberra

Australian ForMin @MarisePayne at @raisinadialogue talks abt competition & uncertainty in region. Says it's no time for complacency.

Australian ForMin @MarisePayne at @raisinadialogue: in March, Australia's largest naval deployment - Indo-Pacific Endeavor. Will call at Chennai, Vizag.

Australian ForMin @MarisePayne at @raisinadialogue: economic engagement needed for strategic resilience. Calls for Aus-India econ cooperation in the region.

Australian ForMin @MarisePayne at @raisinadialogue announces opening of 4th consulate in India (in Kolkata)

Australian ForMin @MarisePayne at @raisinadialogue: India also has interest in Pacific that is economically prosperous, strategically secure and politically sovereign

Australian ForMin @MarisePayne at @raisinadialogue announces support (& funds) for South Asian regional connectivity projects

Australian ForMin @MarisePayne at @raisinadialogue: we support American engagement in the region. But we do not want to see US-China confrontation

Australian ForMin @MarisePayne at @raisinadialogue says cooperation between countries like Australia and India can serve as ballast in the region. Also says minilaterals can complement regional architecture (read as msg to ASEAN re Quad)

Next up at @raisinadialogue, when 4 admirals and a general walk into a room aka Quad-Plus panel. 1st question to Indian naval chief: what are the Chinese doing in the region & what are you doing abt it?

Talking abt what China is doing in IOR @raisinadialogue, Indian naval chief comments on the oddity of China saying its submarines are in IOR for anti-piracy operations

Indian naval chief @raisinadialogue: Chinese navy is a force and it is a force that is here to stay [in Indian Ocean]

.@BBCYaldaHakim presses French naval chief on whether France is concerned about China's base in Djibouti. He sticks to diplomatese, but says France is watching carefully

US INDOPACOM commander Adm. Davidson @raisinadialogue emphasizes importance of allies & partners. Asked abt whether they are burden sharing, he says he feels well supported.

Indian navy chief @raisinadialogue says US-India defense cooperation "robust." Says thanks to foundational agmts, his ships regularly refuel from US ships in both Indian & Pacific Oceans.

French naval chief @raisinadialogue mentions a French officer will be assigned to India's new fusion center

A Russian analyst asks the Quaddies @raisinadialogue why there hasn't been a Quad joint statement
[Best answer I hv heard someone give to this is that as democracies, we're ok with countries having diff views & don't want to force/impose a consensus]

Q: there isn't a military aspect to the Quad, is there?
Indian navy chief: not at the moment.

@raisinadialogue

Anwar Ibrahim @raisinadialogue: rise of Asia should not be inherently threatening to the West.

Anwar Ibrahim @raisinadialogue talks about India's dictatorial neighbors. Then says "speaking of which" and mentions China

Anwar Ibrahim's speech at @raisinadialogue includes a fair bit of romantic nostalgia about olden days of socialist India & tirade vs capitalism [no acknowledgement of no. of Indians brought out of poverty post-liberalization]

Anwar Ibrahim @raisinadialogue speaks out vs communal violence, extreme identity politics and calls for respect for diversity.

Anwar Ibrahim @raisinadialogue name checks Nehru multiple times in his speech

Anwar Ibrahim @raisinadialogue not just critical of China, but US

Anwar Ibrahim @raisinadialogue: if Asia does rise, it must be shorn of vainglory

Indian FonSec Vijay Gokhale @raisinadialogue re challenges:
- unilateralism vs multilateralism (+ diff concepts of multilateralism)
- industry 4.0 vs jobs (benefits of 4th IR but, if era of jobless growth, how to maintain growth & social stability)
- science vs ethics

Given challenges ahead, Indian FonSec Vijay Gokhale at @raisinadialogue emphasizes the importance of #humanities in education. Says #science important, but role of humanities has to be restored in education.
[my reaction: 👏🏽]

UK cabinet secy Mark Sedwill @raisinadialogue says world is safer, wealthier than it was 50 yrs ago & will be safer, wealthier 50 yrs from now - but also more unequal

French ForMin SecGen's predictions @raisinadialogue
- the more narrow countries' concepts of nat'l interests, the more complicated future will be
- World to remain fragmented. Need to find groupings to tackle diff issues
- Europe future to depend on ability of EU to reform itself

UK's Mark Sedwill at @raisinadialogue: Cyberspace in 21st century will be like international waters in 18th century. Has to be governed or will put nations/ppl at risk

Indian FonSec Gokhale @raisinadialogue: Rules-based order important but also how rules will be written and who will write them. If we won't be part of writing rules, we will be followers. India needs to be part of rule-making

India FonSec Gokhale @raisinadialogue: India needs to be part of rule-making. In that sense, current sys of multilateralism doesnt work 4 us. Our positions not reflected. Will we be allowed to be rulemakers? & on our part, hv to be ready domestically to hv ability to write rules

UK cabinet secy Mark Sedwell @raisinadialogue: Shouldn't assume 4th industrial revolution will hv jobless growth. New tech generates new opportunities. Task for govt is to enable our populations to take advantage of them. Means investments in education, training, retraining.

UK cabinet secretary Mark Sedwill @raisinadialogue on FonSec Gokhale comment re India wanting role in rule-making: How do you get to the table? By setting the table.

[Me: And/or it could replace UK in the UNSC 😉]

Indian FonSec Gokhale @raisinadialogue re foreign policy post-2019 elections: broad consensus for past 70 yrs re Indian interest in protecting decisional & strategic autonomy. Will be alignment, but issue-based, not ideological.

Indian FonSec Gokhale @raisinadialogue mentions strategic autonomy, but adds: this is not India of 50s, 60s. It has stakes in many parts of the world and needs to protect them