Thread by @YadlinAmos

In the news: Iranian seniors continue to threat Israel if it strikes in Syria; Satellite imagery shows erect S300 SAM launchers in Syria; Netanyahu goes to Moscow. It is important that election considerations won’t dull the need for a thorough and timely assessment....
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...of the campaign against Iran’s entrenchment and Hizbullah’s buildup to Israel’s north. Two week ago Iran launched a missile towards Israel in response to Israel’s strike on its assets in Syria, for the first time since last May.
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The risks for Iran’s retaliation are on the rise, despite its failure to establish a substantial attack capability in Syria. It also has not launched from its own territory to Israel, as it already did towards Iraq and eastern Syria.
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3.The erect S300 launchers alone, in the same location since October, do not indicate an operational battery, and more importantly, its operators’ and fire-permitting commanders’ identity: Russians or Syrians.
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Yet, all of the above mean greater threat to Israel’s aircraft, rising risks of escalation due to its continued attacks in Syria and a growing danger of trouble with Russia.
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The Campaign between the Wars focused on thwarting advanced arms transfers to Hizbullah and foiling Iran’s military entrenchment in Syria, in particular missiles, air defenses, and production facilities. It has successfully disrupted Iran’s plans and set back its timelines.
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5.Yet, Iran remains committed to continue to entrench in Syria in multiple ways: building militias, influencing the Syrian regime, changing demography, buying real estate and signing economic deals, which the current Israeli campaign does not address in a serious way.
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Russia made positive statements respecting Israel’s security concerns and denying an alliance with Iran. A first visit of the PM in Russia since Syria shot down the Russian Il-20 carries high diplomatic and security importance beyond the political gains for his election campaign.

Continuing the Campaign between Wars requires updating of ways, means and theaters, adapting to the developing enemy and environment, and to the growing risk-load. Time to re-read #INSS’s Itai Brun’s Insight # 1124 on “Success’s culmination point”.
9/9 and last.