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Maxim A. Suchkov @MSuchkov_ALM
, 8 tweets, 9 min read Read on Twitter
#Syria UPDATE: 1. So, it appears #Russia, #US working on de-escalation options now via a number of "middle men". RUS military stated earlier it's been in touch w/ American Joint Chief of Staff over the issue & there're Rus-#NATO communication/talks via #Turkey military.
2.#Putin spoke on the phone w/ #Netanyahu earlier today. #Russia Prez said #Syria sovereignty should be respected, urged to refrain from actions that "could further destabilize the situayion in the country." #Israel's PM stood the ground on #Iran's prwsence in SYR as unacceptable
3. In #Moscow rumors have it #Netanyahu playing important intermediary role b/n #Putin & #Trump now, (an option #Russia has long been favoring) but no details on how big his role is. Anyways, some kind of deal to deconflict is being attempted
4.Yet #Russia still sees #US strikes on #Syria as highly probable.MoD prepared a menu of potential responses.Brilliant guys @kommersant led by @ElenaChernenko report Rus navy closed off access area at SYR shores for drills on Apr 11–12,17–19 & 25–26 from 10-6 pm Moscow time
5.@kommersant also reports #Russia navy in Mediterranean is now at 15 Black Sea Fleet combat ships & supply modules.Besides,antisub patrol aircrafts Il-38H been recently deployed; S400, Pantsir-S1(NATO name SA-22 Greyhound) put on station to defend Hmeymim & Tartus.
6. Finally, #Russia/n party expects #Pentagon pass #Moscow coordinates of precise targets #US seeks to strike "to theoretically avoid loses of Rus military that are present at dozens of #Syria/n military facilities", otherwose, Rus MoD warned "consequences may be catastrophic"
7. Full report (in RUS) by @ElenaChernenko is available here: kommersant.ru/doc/3600193 I will be meeting #NATO officials + individual member states' reps tomorrow, so will summarize the views and the mood from the other side tomorrow. Hopefully this all can be settled smoothly
#Jordan is yet another important intermediary b/n #Russia, #US these days : tass.com/politics/999201
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#Syria #Russia #US #NATO #Turkey #Putin #Netanyahu #Israel #Iran #Moscow #Trump #Pentagon #Jordan

More from @MSuchkov_ALM see all

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THREAD on @RT_Erdogan's @nytimes op-ed, #Ankara's relations with @realDonaldTrump, #Putin
1.#Erdogan's op-ed - masterpiece of communication effort in hostile info-environment,the lobbysts who worked on it deserve credit for understanding psychology of Western reader&current political discourse in #US which helps them pick arguments urbi et orbi
nyti.ms/2REWFsY
2. Endorsment: #Erdogan basically argues #Trump is right in his decision to depart #Syria but it should be done in a smat way to meet "interests of US, international cummunity & Syrians" => shout out to both Trump's conservative constituency & liberals: "TUR cares about YOU"
Read 13 tweets
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THREAD on #Russia/n Orthodox Church (ROC) breaking off “eucharistic communion" w/ #Constantinople Patriarchate.
1.CAVEAT: I don’t claim to be an expert in church relations but being Orthodox Christian & working on #Russia-related politics/policies I feel entitled to share few of my own observations esp in the face of mounting ignorance or propaganda from some of the usual "Russia watchers"
2. Within next days you will hear 3 dominating narratives on what came to be called "the new schism":
A.Patriarch Kirill is KGB (somewhat true).
B. ROC is a tool of #Kremlin (true).
C. Conflict emerged as aftermath of “#Russia trying to make #Ukraine submissive” (yes & no)
Read 19 tweets
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Short THREAD on #Russia - #Turkey divergences over #Idlib as seen from #Moscow:
1. In early August I described rationale behind RU positon & that "certain level of understanding reached w/ TUR that there should be no [large-scale] offensive on Idlib [then]"almon.co/338t
2.I recently reached out to the same senior RUS diplomat who reiterated #Moscow's bottom-line desire to settle the issue peacefully except for terrorists organization who he argued #Turkey too agreed to fight as part of AStana agreements.Yesterday,RU #Syria envoy Lavrentyev..
3. .alluded to #Russia's growing displease w/ #Ankara's inability to deliver upon its committments in the area that, as Lavrentyev said"is kind of their zone of responsibility."Instead,#Erdogan writing op-eds,trying to enlist support from #West/ern partners over #Idlib which is..
Read 10 tweets

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Extraordinary.

Acc. to @BarakRavid sources, #Russia has told #Israel that it'll seek to force #Iran 100km away from #Israeli-held 1974 #Golan line.

That means all territory west of the red line on map (L).

= A truly wild fantasy.

Look where #Iran is now (R); per @ETANA_Syria:
@BarakRavid @ETANA_Syria #Israel has shot down an #Assad regime Sukhoi fighter jet, which took off from T4 Airbase & flew 2km into Israeli airspace.

x2 Patriot SAM missiles were used & multiple messages sent in multiple languages prior to shoot-down.

Another example of #Russia’s value in de-escalation.
@BarakRavid @ETANA_Syria #pt: Just 36hrs ago was #Israel's first operational use of the "David’s Sling" SAM system, used to down #Assad ballistic missiles.

Yesterday, #Russia’s MFA & MOD visited #Jerusalem to firm-up their security arrangements with #Israel.

I wrote that #Moscow is incapable - clearly.
Read 8 tweets
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#Syria Update

1-State: Feels it won but seems lacking in credible economic solutions going forward.
2- Opposition: Still dazed, confused & seemingly delusional about its ability to gain through politics what it failed to do militarily
3-Kurds: Hit pause button. Wait & see mode
#Syria update Continued:

Foreign Actors: The U.S is going nowhere anytime soon. Keep territory given limited financial burden. Continue the balancing act between Ankara and the Kurds. Appease the pro-Israel / Anti-Iran camp. Strategy Archives multiple goals w limited investment
#Syria Update Continued:

Foreign Actors: Russia has met all originally set objectives. Damascus survived. Moscow is an important player in the region. Ability to maintain strong relationship with Ankara offers larger geopolitical opportunities
Read 8 tweets
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BREAKING: The White House has said that US President #Trump is canceling his upcoming South America trip to remain in the US "to oversee the American response to Syria." - @NBCNews
This sounds like the US is planning to strike #Syria and Trump will remain in the US to closely monitor responses by #Russia. This is terrible.
BREAKING - British forces are now mobilizing at their bases in #Cyprus for strikes against #Syria. It appears very likely that the US, France and U.K. will strike Syria in the next 24 hours. This is dreadful.
Read 182 tweets

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