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Some stuff on Uber, using a quick survey of media reports on their financial conditions back to Q4 '16.
Using Uber's "Adjusted net loss" figure (-768mm in Q4), I show YoY incremental margins of -35.7% on a net revenue basis, -9.5% on a gross revenue basis.
Using Uber's "Adjusted net loss" figure (-768mm in Q4), I show YoY incremental margins of -35.7% on a net revenue basis, -9.5% on a gross revenue basis.
Keep in mind that the adjusted figure is all sorts of hokey, massaged, and made pretty.
Gross revenue = what people pay for rides
Net revenue = what Uber gets after drivers.
"Net" (see above) incremental margins are negative, but they have been on a YoY basis for quite a while now.
What's really crazy is the incremental margin on *gross* revenue is also negative.
Net revenue = what Uber gets after drivers.
"Net" (see above) incremental margins are negative, but they have been on a YoY basis for quite a while now.
What's really crazy is the incremental margin on *gross* revenue is also negative.
Incremental gross revenue -> "adjusted net loss" margins, since Q4 '17.
Q4 '17 +12.3%
Q1 '18 +10.6%
Q2 '18 -0.4%
Q3 '18 -6.5%
Q4 '18 -9.5%
See the problem here?
Q4 '17 +12.3%
Q1 '18 +10.6%
Q2 '18 -0.4%
Q3 '18 -6.5%
Q4 '18 -9.5%
See the problem here?
For every dollar of gross revenue (before payment to drivers), Uber lost 9.5 cents over the past 12 months. And that's with a whole bunch of costs stripped out.
Now, of course they're spinning up Uber Eats, among other things. But they're still losing 5 cents on every dollar (TTM) the consumer gives them. And it's starting to slide.
PS as @BenDWalsh has pointed out to me it's ridiculous that this stuff isn't tabulated somewhere, cannot *wait* for the S1 and real standardized reporting.
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