Thread by @yinkanubi

First, let me thank @DejiOgunnubi for the fantastic job he did analyzing the election result as they came in. The final data when compared to 2015 tells a lot of stories. First it was a story of loses and gains in different GPZ by the "three" main parties. #NigeriaDecides2019

APC

Overall, as compared to 2015, the @OfficialAPCNg lost 2% of it's votes. While it lost 16% in strong holds like the NW and the SW, it more than made up for it with strong gains in the SE and the SS while holding on to it's position in the NC and the NE. #NigeriaDecides2019

PDP

The story is quite different for the @OfficialPDPNig. Overall, it lost 12% in 2019 compared to 2015. While it gained in the NW, NE & NC, it lost ground in its traditional base of the SS & SE. Interestingly, it lost the highest number of votes in the SW. #NigeriaDecides2019

THIRD FORCE

The surprising part of the data is the performance of the other parties. In 2015, they got 309,481 votes (1% of total votes). In 2019, all of them put together, got 869,758 votes (3% of total votes). This represents an increase of over 180%. #NigeriaDecides2019

The second story has to do with the voter turnout. While there is a 4.% decline in total number of vote cast nationally between 2015 (28.6m) and 2019 (27.3m), there is a significant drop in the voter turnout also. While it was 44% in 2015, it is 35% in 2019. #NigeriaDecides2019

The story doesn't end there. You'll notice from the chart that while registered voters is going up, vote cast & voter turnout is stagnant or going down. Ordinarily, it should be the other way round. With higher voter reg, we should be seeing higher votes cast. #NigeriaDecides2019

What this suggest is that it is either the
1. Voter register is inflated or
2. Vote cast in previous elections is inflated.

@inecnigeria claims that the voter register is checked with bio-data to eliminate multiple registration. So we can rule out number 1 #NigeriaDecides2019

That leaves us to consider the possibility of number 2. From what the data tells us, the highest negative variation in vote cast between 2015 & 2019 happened in the SS & SE while the highest positive variation was in the NE & NC. The NW & SW were largely flat #NigeriaDecides2019

In the coming days, I expect data analyst to comb through these data. It might be interesting to compare 2019 data with pre-2015 election data to see the level of variation. The question to be asked is 'how trust worthy are these data for electoral planning?' #NigeriaDecides2019

CORRECTION: The @OfficialPDPNig did not lose the highest number of votes in the SW. This was an error.