Thread by @KeirGiles

Russia keeps surprising the West. Not because Russia is unpredictable or irrational; instead, it can be the West just not paying attention. Here are some ground rules for avoiding being surprised or dismayed by what Moscow does next.

Thread.

@ICDS_Tallinn @CHRussiaEurasia 1/ Russia is guided by its own understanding of how the world works. Try to see the world from the Kremlin to understand the internal logic that drives Russian decisions. And abandon any assumptions based on what the West would do.

@ICDS_Tallinn @CHRussiaEurasia 2/ But that doesn't mean Russia is right. Some (not all) parts of that world view are disastrously misguided. But right or wrong, Russia's belief system doesn't excuse Russian behaviour to other countries or to its own people.

@ICDS_Tallinn @CHRussiaEurasia 3/ There are no simple answers, and often no single answers, to why Russia takes any given action. Objectives can be multiple, flexible and incomprehensible by Western measures of success.

@ICDS_Tallinn @CHRussiaEurasia 4/ Filtering the signal from the noise in Russian official pronouncements is critical. But also very hard, because the noise is incessant and deafening.

@ICDS_Tallinn @CHRussiaEurasia 5/ President Putin is not the whole problem. He is enacting Russia's traditional means of dealing with challenges, not inventing them from scratch. A change of attitude from Russia would require far more than a change of leader.

@ICDS_Tallinn @CHRussiaEurasia 6/ You may be appalled by current Russian state behaviour at home and abroad. But remember this is a country where industrial-scale deportation and murder of its own citizens and those of occupied countries is the norm through history.

@ICDS_Tallinn @CHRussiaEurasia 7/ From Syria to Salisbury, Russian actions cause astonishment and revulsion in the West. But there is little reason to think Russia cares much for the approbation of countries that it sees as adversaries.

@ICDS_Tallinn @CHRussiaEurasia 8/ Remember Russia sees concessions and compromise as weakness to be exploited. Cooperation and good-neighbourly relations for their own sake are not an incentive to Moscow.

@ICDS_Tallinn @CHRussiaEurasia 9/ There may be opportunities to cooperate with Russia in the future, but they will be conditional and fleeting. And even if common interest is found, the West will probably not like Russia's desired end state or its means to get there.

@ICDS_Tallinn @CHRussiaEurasia 10/ Too often the post-Cold War period is taken as a benchmark for Russian behaviour. But that was anomalous in so many ways. Russia is returning to its historical comfort zone of hostility to the West (and to its own population).

@ICDS_Tallinn @CHRussiaEurasia 11/ Taken together, these ten principles could help the West avoid repeating past errors in dealing with Moscow. This in turn would provide the basis for a relationship with Russia that is less hostage to misunderstanding and surprise.

For more, see icds.ee/the-moscow-rul…

@ICDS_Tallinn @CHRussiaEurasia 12/ Or for the full explanation of all of these principles and how they are proven time and again, see the book.

'Moscow Rules' is available at amzn.to/2SKa8ND (US) and amzn.to/2Qw9dyo (UK and Europe).

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